For Fellow Nerds: Projections on all 7,406 Match-ups and How They Were Calculated

For Fellow Nerds: Projections on all 7,406 Match-ups and How They Were Calculated
John Pudner

The following are the projected NON-CONFERENCE records for all 129 FBS teams assuming they played every other team except those in their conference (a total of 7,406 total non-conference games). The projected conference record is the starting basis for the Method 1 weekly ratings. The following are the basic components of how these are calculated:

1. Projections are just a rough estimate based on returning players and past performance – and will quickly be update each week at Massey Ratings and elsewhere as actual games are played this season.

2. The offensive and defensive ratings at Massey Ratings were used to estimate the average score each team would have if playing all 128 other teams on neutral fields.

3. The Pythagorean Theorem is then applied to a team’s projected average score – meaning that their average points scored and allowed are both taken to the power of 2.73, and then the resultant Points Scored^2.73 is then divided by Points Scored^2.73+Points Allowed^2.73. The resultant records do then need some slight adjustments to yield the records below once all conference games are taken out.

4. The overall winning percentage of the conference is used as a basis for how good it is anticipated the conference will be.

5. The Massey Ratings yield a percent chance of victory for each game each week, which we add up to determine a conferences anticipated record that week (e.g. if a conference has five teams that all have a 20% chance of winning on a given week, then 20% is added five times to give a total estimated 1.0 win in five games, or a 1-4 anticipated schedule). If a conference goes 2-3 in those five games, they have exceeded the anticipated one win, indicating they played better than their anticipated rating and turn their ratings the following week will improve on Massey Ratings.

6. These five steps enable us to rank each conference each week based purely on if teams win or lose each game and the degree of difficulty, yielding a “politically correct” rating. In the early years of the BCS the NCAA had to get rid of victory margins in computer ratings because teams were running up scores to move up in the rankings. 

7. This Method 1 is not only important because it is “politically correct” by not encouraging teams to beat inferior opponents too badly, but it is also important because it measures the actual WIN or LOSS. If we skipped this step and went straight to Method 2, then a team hitting a field goal to provide a final 38-10 win would help the team just as much as hitting a field goal to win a game 21-20. Points that determine wins are obviously much more important than points that simply provide a larger or smaller margin of victory.

8. Method 2 looks at the results of Message 1, but focuses primarily on measuring how many points a conference is better or worse than the FBS average based on the process outlined here.

The following is the projected non-conference record of all 129 FBS teams, grouped by conference and then in best to worse order.

   

Team Conference Non-Con W Loss %
UCF American Athletic 74 43 63%
Houston American Athletic 62 55 53%
East Carolina American Athletic 57 60 49%
Cincinnati American Athletic 57 60 49%
SMU American Athletic 47 70 40%
Tulane American Athletic 46 71 39%
Memphis American Athletic 41 76 35%
Temple American Athletic 38 79 32%
Connecticut American Athletic 38 79 32%
Tulsa American Athletic 35 82 30%
South Florida American Athletic 34 83 29%
vs. Non-Conf FBS American Athletic 529 758 41%
         
Florida St Atlantic Coast 107 7 94%
Clemson Atlantic Coast 90 24 79%
Louisville Atlantic Coast 85 29 75%
Georgia Tech Atlantic Coast 72 42 63%
Duke Atlantic Coast 71 43 62%
North Carolina Atlantic Coast 71 43 63%
Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 80 34 70%
Miami FL Atlantic Coast 64 50 56%
Syracuse Atlantic Coast 69 45 61%
Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast 67 47 59%
Boston College Atlantic Coast 59 55 52%
Wake Forest Atlantic Coast 59 55 52%
Virginia Atlantic Coast 43 71 37%
NC State Atlantic Coast 42 72 37%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Atlantic Coast 979 617 61%
10        
Michigan St Big 10 100 14 88%
Ohio St Big 10 85 29 75%
Wisconsin Big 10 97 17 85%
Iowa Big 10 87 27 76%
Michigan Big 10 77 37 68%
Nebraska Big 10 76 38 67%
Penn St Big 10 74 40 65%
Minnesota Big 10 72 42 63%
Northwestern Big 10 68 46 59%
Indiana Big 10 55 59 48%
Maryland Big 10 58 56 51%
Illinois Big 10 47 67 41%
Rutgers Big 10 45 69 39%
Purdue Big 10 35 79 31%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Big 10 976 620 61%
128        
Oklahoma St Big 12 97 21 82%
Oklahoma Big 12 98 20 83%
Baylor Big 12 90 28 76%
Kansas St Big 12 91 27 77%
Texas Big 12 88 30 74%
Texas Tech Big 12 74 44 62%
TCU Big 12 79 39 67%
Iowa St Big 12 62 56 52%
West Virginia Big 12 55 63 47%
Kansas Big 12 47 71 40%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Big 12 780 400 66%
#VALUE!        
North Texas Conference USA 60 55 52%
Marshall Conference USA 49 66 43%
Rice Conference USA 49 66 42%
UT San Antonio Conference USA 47 68 41%
W Kentucky Conference USA 44 71 39%
FL Atlantic Conference USA 43 72 37%
Middle Tenn St Conference USA 39 76 34%
Old Dominion Conference USA 25 90 22%
Louisiana Tech Conference USA 23 92 20%
UAB Conference USA 19 96 16%
UTEP Conference USA 17 98 15%
Southern Miss Conference USA 14 101 12%
Florida Intl Conference USA 10 105 8%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Conference USA 440 1,055 29%
         
Notre Dame FBS Indep 91 33 73%
BYU FBS Indep 79 45 63%
Navy FBS Indep 62 62 50%
Army FBS Indep 23 101 19%
vs. Non-Conf FBS FBS Indep 255 241 51%
         
Bowling Green Mid-American 67 48 58%
N Illinois Mid-American 56 59 49%
Toledo Mid-American 49 66 43%
Ball St Mid-American 45 70 39%
Buffalo Mid-American 40 75 35%
Kent Mid-American 37 78 32%
Ohio Mid-American 30 85 27%
Akron Mid-American 29 86 25%
C Michigan Mid-American 28 87 24%
W Michigan Mid-American 14 101 12%
Massachusetts Mid-American 11 104 10%
Miami OH Mid-American 8 107 7%
E Michigan Mid-American 9 106 8%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Mid-American 424 1,071 28%
         
Utah St Mountain West 79 37 68%
Boise St Mountain West 67 49 57%
Fresno St Mountain West 55 61 47%
San Jose St Mountain West 45 71 39%
Colorado St Mountain West 47 69 41%
San Diego St Mountain West 45 71 39%
Nevada Mountain West 42 74 36%
UNLV Mountain West 39 77 34%
Hawaii Mountain West 29 87 25%
Wyoming Mountain West 28 88 24%
New Mexico Mountain West 23 93 20%
Air Force Mountain West 21 95 18%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Mountain West 522 870 37%
         
Oregon Pac 12 105 11 91%
Stanford Pac 12 105 11 91%
UCLA Pac 12 98 18 85%
Arizona St Pac 12 91 25 79%
Washington Pac 12 93 23 80%
USC Pac 12 95 21 82%
Arizona Pac 12 87 29 75%
Oregon St Pac 12 83 33 71%
Utah Pac 12 80 36 69%
Washington St Pac 12 72 44 62%
Colorado Pac 12 53 63 45%
California Pac 12 41 75 35%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Pac 12 1,003 389 72%
         
Alabama Southeastern 106 8 93%
Missouri Southeastern 101 13 88%
Auburn Southeastern 98 16 86%
South Carolina Southeastern 94 20 82%
LSU Southeastern 94 20 82%
Texas A&M Southeastern 90 24 79%
Georgia Southeastern 90 24 79%
Mississippi Southeastern 91 23 80%
Vanderbilt Southeastern 82 32 72%
Mississippi St Southeastern 83 31 73%
Florida Southeastern 83 31 73%
Tennessee Southeastern 73 41 64%
Arkansas Southeastern 66 48 58%
Kentucky Southeastern 49 65 43%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Southeastern 1,199 397 75%
         
ULL Sun Belt 43 74 37%
South Alabama Sun Belt 42 75 36%
Arkansas St Sun Belt 41 76 35%
Troy Sun Belt 33 84 28%
ULM Sun Belt 36 81 31%
Ga Southern Sun Belt 25 92 22%
Texas St Sun Belt 24 93 21%
Appalachian St Sun Belt 18 99 15%
Georgia St Sun Belt 14 103 12%
Idaho Sun Belt 11 106 10%
New Mexico St Sun Belt 11 106 9%
vs. Non-Conf FBS Sun Belt 299 988 23%
    –    
Overall Non-Conf   7,406 7,406 50%

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