NHL teams given at least a 60 percent chance of winning in the Breitbart Sports Playoff Table are 8-2 heading into Easter Sunday’s games. One of the two upsets was of the Boston Bruins by the Detroit Red Wings, who according to Las Vegas had a respectable 4% chance of taking the Stanley Cup. Detroit was given the best chance at 20% in the Breitbart Sports Playoff Table. Sunday’s NHL schedule along with the Breitbart Table are updated with results. And the Vegas odds for each team winning the Stanley Cup appear at the bottom of this post.
The only other upset was the Columbus Blue Jackets Game 2 win at Pittsburgh.
One reason I discourage sports betting is that Las Vegas sets the odds to pay out only $100 for every $141 wagered. By reverse engineering the odds at OddsShark, I calculate that Boston’s 7/2 odds mean Vegas really believes the odds are really 5/1, etc., and Vegas will never list the percentages that go with the odds they give each because then you could see they added up to 141%.
Easter Sunday (all times eastern)
Noon – Philadelphia at NY Rangers (Rangers lead 1-0) – All seven games are toss-ups (neither team has a 60% chance no matter where played) according to the Breitbart Sports table. The Rangers held Game 1 at home in a battle between the 12th and 13th best regular season teams.
3 p.m. – Detroit at Boston (Detroit leads 1-0) – Red Wings have owned the Bruins this season, but the Breitbart Table makes the Bruins the favorite in every game (75% in this game, and 62% for Games 3 and 4 in Detroit).
7 p.m. – Tampa Bay at Montreal (Montreal leads 2-0) – Like the Rangers-Flyers series, the Breitbart Sports table ranks all seven games toss-ups, but Montreal took both games in Tampa Bay to take a decisive edge.
10 p.m. – Los Angeles at San Jose (San Jose leads 1-0) – San Jose is the favorite (65%) on the table and will even have a slight edge for Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles (though considered a toss-up at 48% chance for LA to win at home). However, many actually gave San Jose the second best chance at the Cup behind the Bruins, though OddsShark has them slightly behind the Blues, Blackhawks and Penguins at 8%.
Monday
7 p.m. – Pittsburgh at Columbus (series tied 1-1) – While Pittsburgh had a 67% in each game at home, that does yield only a 50% chance they would win both Games 1 and 2. The next two games in Columbus are toss-ups (Columbus 48% on the table), so as long as the Penguins win one of those two they still have a big edge and were given a 10% chance at the Cup coming into the playoffs.
7 p.m. – Colorado at Minnesota (Colorado leads 2-0) – Colorado won both at home (71% chance on the Table), and now has two toss-ups in Minnesota (exactly 50% of holding home ice in each game). One win in either Game 3 or 4, and the odds would be back at 71% for a clincher back in Colorado in Game 5.
8:30 – St. Louis at Chicago (St. Louis leads 2-0) – It would seem more fair if this series could be mixed and matched with the Philadelphia-New York Rangers series. That series means either the 12th or 13th best regular season team will advance, while this series means one of the two most likely Cup winners according to Vegas will be eliminated opening round. The Table did give the Blues a clear edge at home where they rallied twice to take a 2-0 lead, while it technically ranks Games 3 and 4 in Chicago as toss-ups (though Chicago just misses a clear favorite at 58% at home).
9:30- Anaheim at Dallas (Anaheim leads 2-0) – The Ducks lived up to their clear edge at home (77%), and now have a chance in two toss-ups in Dallas according to the Table (actually gives Dallas only a 45% chance in this game and the next). Dallas was given only a 1% chance of the Cup by Vegas, while Anaheim was one of the six teams given at least an 8% chance of winning it all.
Long-time ESPN hockey expert Barry Melrose pick of a Bruins-Blackhawks Finals has been threatened, but both are still very alive. Here is the table adding Vegas Odds and eliminating some of the columns in the original, which can be found here.
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 20% | 1 | 75% | 0 W – 1 L |
| Detroit | 4% | 15 | 38% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| Anaheim | 8% | 2 | 77% | 2 W – 0 L |
| Dallas | 1% | 16 | 45% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| Colorado | 5% | 3 | 71% | 2 W – 0 L |
| Minnesota | 2% | 11 | 50% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| St. Louis | 12% | 4 | 71% | 2 W – 0 L |
| Chicago | 9% | 7 | 58% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| San Jose | 8% | 5 | 65% | 1 W – 0 L |
| Los Angeles | 7% | 10 | 52% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| Pittsburgh | 10% | 6 | 67% | 1 W – 1 L |
| Columbus | 1% | 14 | 48% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| Tampa Bay | 3% | 8 | 55% | 0 W – 2 L |
| Montreal | 4% | 9 | 55% | 0 W – 0 L |
| Home Team | Vegas odds of Cup | Rank | Home Chance | Through Sat |
| New York Rangers | 4% | 12 | 55% | 1 W – 0 L |
| Philadelphia | 4% | 13 | 47% | 0 W – 0 L |
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