Selection Sunday: Top 68 Value Add Players

The following are the 68 best players in the country as of Selection Sunday, the day that the top 68 teams are announced. Doug McDermott is by far the best offensive player in the country at www.valueaddbasketball.com, with his 8.77 calculation indicating that he adds almost nine points a game to what Creighton would score with a good bench player in his place. Shabazz Napier (UConn) and Delon Wright (Utah) are worth just over half of McDermott’s offense, but they both take multiple points off the board for oppponents to be the top two overall players.

The Value Add system was covered by many outlets when first introduced, including an excellent comprehensive piece by Sports Illustrated (click here). The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team’s score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced and opponent’s missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent’s score. When all calculated together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com results in the player’s offensive and defensive combination.

The ratings are often ahead of the critics, finding surprise players early. Michigan State fans were outraged when Michigan’s Nik Stauskas rated ahead of all Michigan State players earlier in the season. He went on to be selected Big Ten Player of the Year a couple of month’s later by the coaches. However, there is good news for Michigan State fans. Gary Harris edged him out by one spot in the ratings below.

Many have focused only on Value Add’s Offensive Rating, but the overall rating is the indicator of the player’s overall ability to change the score of a game. Other Value Add stories will be posted to help with your brackets. Because this is a precise measurement of points added or taken away, it is important to look at any players that are injured before picking them to win a game in your bracket. If you believe the team you want to pick is three points better than the opponent they draw, but they have a player injured with a Total Value Add of five, then you would assume they are actually two points worse than the opponent.

The Value Adds of all tournament players will be listed by region after the Selections, but below are the Top 68. Fro tournament purposes, you will also want to look at any player who is a Senior or Junior guard (JR G or SR G), and any player expected to be in the NBA with two years (see far right column). In the tournament it is also often better to have a team with the better top three players, as bench players play less in tournament games. There are 3500 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, so even many great players do not make this top 68 list.

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