2014 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Analyzing West Region (Part II)

The following are the Value Add Rankings for each player in the bottom half of the West Region, their team’s seed, height, year in school, and which players are NBA prospects (all caps). The teams are American (15-seed), Baylor (6), BYU (10), Creighton (3), Lafayette (14), Nebraska (11), Oregon (7) and Wisconsin (2).

The upset being talked about the most is a hot Nebraska team (improved from 75th to 48th) defeating Baylor. But the Cornhuskers face an equally hot Baylor team (54th to 31st).

Home Advantage: Staying in the state of Texas could be just enough to help Baylor avoid an upset against Nebraska. A Nebraska upset would in turn set up a state championship between them and Creighton. Wisconsin looks like an even more sure bet in Milwaukee for two games, but they would have a tough time if the Elite 8 game has them against either Arizona or San Diego State in Anaheim.

The items listed for the top few players on each team should be the biggest considerations along with, injured players, the home advantage and which team is going into the tournament the hottest (which we define as improving the most at www.kenpom.com over the past month of the season). An explanation of the Value Add system, which measures how many points a player adds to his team’s score (https://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2014/03/16/value-add-top-68-players-selection-sunday), and his overall impact on points once defense is factored (“Total” on the table).

An explanation of Value Add:

The system is a precise measurement of how many points a player adds to his team’s score per game over the player who takes his place. Every score (three-pointer, two-pointer or foul shot), assist, offensive rebound, foul drawn, etc. helps a team score while every turnover and missed shot costs the team points. On defense, every steal, blocked shot, defensive rebound, turnover forced and opponent’s missed shot takes points off the board while every basket or offensive rebound allowed adds to the opponent’s score. When all calculated together with the help of the stats at www.kenpom.com results in the player’s offensive and defensive combination.

Bottom West Bracket Players (teams listed in order they appear on bracket):

Rnk	Player	Seed	Team	Ht	Yr	NBA/g	Off	Total
66	Cory Jefferson	6	Baylor	6′ 9″	Sr	PF	3.78	4.56
105	Brady Heslip	6	Baylor	6′ 2″	Sr	SG	4.92	4.01
260	Kenny Chery	6	Baylor	5′ 11″	Jr		3.44	2.78
271	Isaiah Austin	6	Baylor	7′ 1″	So	C	1.40	2.70
333	Rico Gathers	6	Baylor	6′ 8″	So		1.36	2.33
390	Royce O’Neale	6	Baylor	6′ 6″	Jr		2.43	2.08
1170	Taurean Prince	6	Baylor	6′ 7″	So		0.56	0.59
1950	Ish Wainright	6	Baylor	6′ 5″	Fr		0.00	0.13
2114	Gary Franklin	6	Baylor	6′ 2″	Sr		0.14	0.07
178	Walter Pitchford	11	Nebraska	6′ 10″	So		3.32	3.26
308	Terran Petteway	11	Nebraska	6′ 6″	So		2.42	2.47
381	Shavon Shields	11	Nebraska	6′ 7″	So		2.25	2.12
568	Leslee Smith	11	Nebraska	6′ 8″	Jr		0.26	1.50
761	Benny Parker	11	Nebraska	5′ 9″	So	g	0.33	1.16
977	David Rivers	11	Nebraska	6′ 7″	Jr		0.48	0.80
1237	Ray Gallegos	11	Nebraska	6′ 2″	Sr		1.06	0.53
1638	Deverell Biggs	11	Nebraska	6′ 0	Jr		0.00	0.27
2313	Tai Webster	11	Nebraska	6′ 4″	Fr	g	0.00	0.00
3	Doug McDermott	3	Creighton	6′ 8″	Sr	PF	8.77	7.87
203	Ethan Wragge	3	Creighton	6′ 7″	Sr		4.20	3.14
222	Jahenns Manigat	3	Creighton	6′ 1″	Sr		3.44	3.02
365	Devin Brooks	3	Creighton	6′ 2″	Jr	g	1.43	2.16
511	Will Artino	3	Creighton	6′ 11″	Jr		1.79	1.67
532	Austin Chatman	3	Creighton	6′ 0	Jr	g	2.57	1.61
667	Grant Gibbs	3	Creighton	6′ 5″	Sr		2.36	1.31
1395	Isaiah Zierden	3	Creighton	6′ 2″	Fr		0.81	0.40
1787	Avery Dingman	3	Creighton	6′ 6″	Jr		0.41	0.21
641	Bryce Scott	14	Lafayette	6′ 3″	So		2.72	1.36
648	Joey Ptasinski	14	Lafayette	6′ 2″	Jr		2.70	1.35
960	Seth Hinrichs	14	Lafayette	6′ 7″	Jr		1.63	0.82
984	Nick Lindner	14	Lafayette	5′ 10″	Fr	g	1.56	0.78
1121	Dan Trist	14	Lafayette	6′ 9″	Jr		1.28	0.64
1549	Michael Hoffman	14	Lafayette	6′ 7″	Fr		0.63	0.32
2062	Alan Flannigan	14	Lafayette	6′ 6″	Jr		0.18	0.09
2155	Zach Rufer	14	Lafayette	6′ 2″	So		0.00	0.06
	Ben Freeland	14	Lafayette	6′ 9″	So		0.00	0.00
	Monty Boykins	14	Lafayette	6′ 4″	Fr		0.00	0.00
	Nathaniel Musters	14	Lafayette	6′ 10″	So		0.00	0.00
176	Tyler Haws	10	BYU	6′ 5″	Jr		4.77	3.27
367	Matt Carlino	10	BYU	6′ 2″	Jr	g	1.49	2.15
377	Kyle Collinsworth	10	BYU	6′ 6″	So		1.91	2.13
428	Anson Winder	10	BYU	6′ 3″	Jr	g	2.03	1.95
788	Nate Austin	10	BYU	6′ 11″	Jr		0.97	1.09
890	Eric Mika	10	BYU	6′ 9″	Fr		1.80	0.92
1227	Skyler Halford	10	BYU	6′ 1″	Jr		1.07	0.54
1603	Josh Sharp	10	BYU	6′ 7″	Jr		0.58	0.29
	Frank Bartley	10	BYU	6′ 3″	Fr		0.00	0.00
	Luke Worthington	10	BYU	6′ 10″	Fr		0.00	0.00
25	Joseph Young	7	Oregon	6′ 2″	Jr		6.18	5.60
67	Mike Moser	7	Oregon	6′ 8″	Sr	PF	2.70	4.51
119	Jason Calliste	7	Oregon	6′ 2″	Sr		4.46	3.84
294	Johnathan Loyd	7	Oregon	5′ 8″	Sr	g	2.36	2.56
504	Elgin Cook	7	Oregon	6′ 6″	So		1.63	1.70
880	Richard Amardi	7	Oregon	6′ 8″	Sr		0.37	0.94
1142	Damyean Dotson	7	Oregon	6′ 5″	So		1.25	0.62
1449	Ben Carter	7	Oregon	6′ 8″	So		0.34	0.37
1550	Waverly Austin	7	Oregon	6′ 11″	Sr		0.07	0.32
	Dominic Artis	7	Oregon	6′ 1″	So		0.00	0.00
166	Tony Wroblicky	15	American	6′ 10″	Sr		1.50	3.40
197	Darius Gardner	15	American	5′ 9″	Jr	g	1.63	3.20
348	Jesse Reed	15	American	6′ 5″	So		2.13	2.26
1218	John Schoof	15	American	6′ 5″	Jr	g	1.09	0.54
1571	Kyle Kager	15	American	6′ 8″	Jr		0.00	0.31
2043	Marko Vasic	15	American	6′ 5″	So		0.19	0.09
2108	Austin Carroll	15	American	6′ 3″	Jr		0.14	0.07
	Charlie Jones	15	American	6′ 5″	Fr		0.00	0.00
	Justice Montgomery	15	American	5′ 11″	Fr		0.00	0.00
	Yilret Yiljep	15	American	6′ 7″	Fr		0.00	0.00
16	Frank Kaminsky	2	Wisconsin	7′ 0	Jr		5.12	6.09
87	Sam Dekker	2	Wisconsin	6′ 7″	So	SF	3.71	4.18
98	Ben Brust	2	Wisconsin	6′ 1″	Sr	g	4.40	4.12
168	Josh Gasser	2	Wisconsin	6′ 3″	Jr		4.27	3.36
515	Nigel Hayes	2	Wisconsin	6′ 7″	Fr		1.32	1.65
728	Traevon Jackson	2	Wisconsin	6′ 2″	Jr		1.85	1.22
1100	Bronson Koenig	2	Wisconsin	6′ 3″	Fr		1.08	0.66
1231	Duje Dukan	2	Wisconsin	6′ 9″	Jr		0.83	0.53