The SEC East race is still a delightful mess, with three teams still holding on to title hopes. Each of these three teams has a set of requirements, and also a wish list, and yet the prize would appear to be a chance to get blasted by Alabama on National TV. This could reduce each of these teams’ bowl options, not to mention national their ranking.
Be careful what you wish for, as the saying goes. It’s a zany year to say the least in the SEC.
Here’s the rundown:
South Carolina, 5-2, needs to beat Florida in a couple of weeks, while hoping that Missouri loses one game – but no more – and oh, the Gamecocks also need favored Auburn to hold serve at home against Georgia. Georgia (4-2), meanwhile, needs to beat Auburn on the plains and Kentucky, and the Dawgs also need Missouri to lose at least two games. As for Missouri, 4-1, they need no help from anyone else – as long as they can win three straight SEC games; at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, and then hosting Johnny Football and Texas A&M. They will be underdog in at least one of those, and maybe two. Should they stumble once, they would need some cooperation from Florida in beating South Carolina. If they lose two? Same thing.
Why the same outcome whether Mizzou loses once or twice? Well, that gets us into the SEC tiebreaker system, which is based on how teams do head to head first, and then within their own division as the secondary tie break criteria. Since the Gamecocks beat Missouri, if the teams tie at 6-2, the Gamecocks win the divsion. That is, unless Georgia beats Vandy and Auburn and is also 6-2. Since Georgia beat S.C., there is a head to head three way tie. This tie would go to Missouri, since they have no more division games and have lost only one eastern game so far. If all the teams end up at 5-3, it’s the same thing. Under such a scenario, Florida could well be 5-3 as well, and part of the tie breaker.
Again, under this scenario, Missouri would advance to the title game because they beat Florida head to head, and have the tie breakers over South Carolina and Georgia. Oh, and you can keep your health insurance if you like it, too. I think.
Which begs another question: would a shot at the SEC Title Game be necessarily a good thing in the long run? There is no guarantee that Alabama is going to beat LSU and Auburn and advance from the West, but it looks like a pretty good possibility. Bama would also be a prohibitive favorite to soundly defeat either of the three Eastern contenders as well. As one insider close to the media operation at South Carolina told me, the best path to the BCS, say the Sugar Bowl, might be letting someone else take on the Tide in Atlanta.
No doubt that would be firmly denied by the coaches or the players at Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia – but it is just another factor in this zany year in the SEC East.