Despite missing a half dozen starts this season, David Price surged to a No. 34 ranking in the www.valueaddbaseball.com database after winning the final start of the season and 4,728th start in the database. Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer finished as the top pitchers in their respective leagues by winning 86% of their starts in which they received any run support. Both deserve the Cy Young Awards they should be receiving shortly, though Scherzer received far more support.
The Dodgers gave Kershaw no chance to win (a 0.00 ERA Needed to win) in one-third (11 of 33 starts) of his starts. He won 19 of the other 22 starts, with support that would have resulted in just over seven wins if a replacement pitcher was pitching instead of him, so he added 11.71 Wins to the Dodgers win total this season. If Kershaw was out this season, Value Add projects the Dodgers would have finished tied with Arizona instead of winning the NL West by 11 games. In the 11 games in which Kershaw was given no chance, he saved the bullpen by averaging 6 2/3rds innings and only 1.7 earned runs, which gives him an adjustment of almost four to yield his MLB best 15.37 Value Add.
There were only three games in which the Tigers gave Scherzer no chance to win. However, he won 25 of the other 29 starts. While he received very strong support in those games, it is likely the Tigers would have only won about 11 of those games with a replacement pitcher, so he was worth an estimated 14.18 additional wins (the Raw Value Add) to the team. That would have left the Tigers 79-83 and nowhere near the playoffs.
An MLB team with an average line-up and bullpen would go about 53-109 if their starting rotation were all replacement players. Here are the final rankings for all 233 pitchers to start at least five games this season.
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Rnk | Player | Team | Wins Added to Team | Value Add |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 11.71 | 15.37 |
2 | Patrick Corbin | ARI | 13.21 | 14.81 |
3 | Max Scherzer | DET | 14.18 | 14.58 |
4 | Mat Latos | CIN | 11.93 | 14.06 |
5 | Chris Sale | CHW | 9.26 | 14.06 |
6 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 12.64 | 13.78 |
7 | James Shields | KC | 11.69 | 13.69 |
8 | Julio Teheran | ATL | 11.77 | 13.30 |
9 | Jordan Zimmermann | WSH | 12.02 | 13.22 |
10 | Cliff Lee | PHI | 10.53 | 13.13 |
11 | Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 10.46 | 12.79 |
12 | Zack Greinke | LAD | 12.19 | 12.39 |
13 | Jhoulys Chacin | COL | 9.54 | 11.74 |
14 | Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | 9.99 | 11.73 |
15 | Doug Fister | DET | 9.01 | 11.61 |
16 | Chris Tillman | BAL | 10.06 | 11.46 |
17 | Yu Darvish | TEX | 9.65 | 11.45 |
18 | Bartolo Colon | OAK | 10.65 | 11.25 |
19 | Madison Bumgarner | SF | 8.15 | 11.02 |
20 | Jorge De La Rosa | COL | 10.24 | 10.97 |
21 | Derek Holland | TEX | 8.50 | 10.97 |
22 | C.J. Wilson | LAA | 9.13 | 10.86 |
23 | A.J. Griffin | OAK | 9.47 | 10.80 |
24 | Kris Medlen | ATL | 9.93 | 10.66 |
25 | Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 9.10 | 10.63 |
26 | Shelby Miller | STL | 9.66 | 10.53 |
27 | Ricky Nolasco | LAD | 8.08 | 10.41 |
28 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | 9.45 | 10.38 |
29 | Mark Buehrle | TOR | 9.44 | 10.38 |
30 | R.A. Dickey | TOR | 9.14 | 10.34 |
31 | Jose Fernandez | MIA | 9.43 | 10.29 |
32 | John Lackey | BOS | 7.38 | 10.11 |
33 | Mike Minor | ATL | 8.72 | 9.92 |
34 | David Price | TB | 7.87 | 9.87 |
35 | Ubaldo Jimenez | CLE | 9.00 | 9.87 |
36 | Kyle Lohse | MIL | 8.04 | 9.84 |
37 | Mike Leake | CIN | 8.99 | 9.79 |
38 | Homer Bailey | CIN | 8.05 | 9.79 |
39 | Jon Lester | BOS | 9.07 | 9.73 |
40 | Matt Harvey | NYM | 7.19 | 9.52 |
41 | Clay Buchholz | BOS | 9.04 | 9.24 |
42 | Cole Hamels | PHI | 5.94 | 9.21 |
43 | Jered Weaver | LAA | 8.40 | 9.14 |
44 | Justin Verlander | DET | 5.66 | 9.12 |
45 | Anibal Sanchez | DET | 7.96 | 8.89 |
46 | Dillon Gee | NYM | 7.82 | 8.89 |
47 | Ervin Santana | KC | 7.46 | 8.86 |
48 | Felix Hernandez | SEA | 5.51 | 8.71 |
49 | Jarrod Parker | OAK | 6.50 | 8.70 |
50 | Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 7.62 | 8.69 |
51 | Rick Porcello | DET | 7.79 | 8.66 |
52 | Francisco Liriano | PIT | 8.25 | 8.65 |
53 | Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 7.50 | 8.57 |
54 | Jeff Samardzija | CHC | 5.93 | 8.46 |
55 | A.J. Burnett | PIT | 6.35 | 8.41 |
56 | Jose Quintana | CHW | 6.56 | 8.22 |
57 | Ryan Dempster | BOS | 6.25 | 8.05 |
58 | Travis Wood | CHC | 5.85 | 8.05 |
59 | Justin Masterson | CLE | 7.49 | 7.96 |
60 | Lance Lynn | STL | 7.08 | 7.88 |
61 | Matt Moore | TB | 7.62 | 7.88 |
62 | Matt Garza | TEX | 7.48 | 7.88 |
63 | Andrew Cashner | SD | 5.50 | 7.70 |
64 | Gio Gonzalez | WSH | 5.76 | 7.69 |
65 | CC Sabathia | NYY | 7.34 | 7.68 |
66 | Ivan Nova | NYY | 6.20 | 7.54 |
67 | Kyle Kendrick | PHI | 5.08 | 7.15 |
68 | Kevin Correia | MIN | 5.15 | 7.08 |
69 | Tim Lincecum | SF | 5.24 | 7.04 |
70 | Eric Stults | SD | 5.30 | 6.96 |
71 | Felix Doubront | BOS | 5.74 | 6.81 |
72 | Martin Perez | TEX | 6.16 | 6.76 |
73 | Marco Estrada | MIL | 5.75 | 6.75 |
74 | Randall Delgado | ARI | 5.77 | 6.57 |
75 | Matt Cain | SF | 2.84 | 6.57 |
76 | Scott Feldman | BAL | 5.92 | 6.46 |
77 | Andy Pettitte | NYY | 4.77 | 6.44 |
78 | Wily Peralta | MIL | 4.84 | 6.31 |
79 | Jake Peavy | BOS | 5.50 | 6.23 |
80 | Gerrit Cole | PIT | 5.76 | 6.22 |
81 | Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.66 | 6.06 |
82 | Joe Kelly | STL | 5.56 | 6.03 |
83 | Alex Cobb | TB | 5.10 | 5.97 |
84 | Dan Straily | OAK | 5.10 | 5.97 |
85 | Tommy Milone | OAK | 4.44 | 5.90 |
86 | Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.81 | 5.87 |
87 | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | 4.46 | 5.73 |
88 | Bud Norris | BAL | 4.33 | 5.73 |
89 | Paul Maholm | ATL | 3.71 | 5.65 |
90 | Wade Miley | ARI | 4.78 | 5.52 |
91 | Bruce Chen | KC | 4.88 | 5.48 |
92 | Tim Hudson | ATL | 4.61 | 5.41 |
93 | Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.19 | 5.39 |
94 | Samuel Deduno | MIN | 4.92 | 5.39 |
95 | Stephen Strasburg | WSH | 3.19 | 5.19 |
96 | Jonathon Niese | NYM | 3.37 | 5.17 |
97 | Jonathan Pettibone | PHI | 5.02 | 5.08 |
98 | Zach McAllister | CLE | 4.59 | 4.86 |
99 | Nate Eovaldi | MIA | 3.84 | 4.84 |
100 | Alexi Ogando | TEX | 3.93 | 4.79 |
101 | Jeremy Hellickson | TB | 4.64 | 4.78 |
102 | Jason Vargas | LAA | 4.16 | 4.69 |
103 | Trevor Cahill | ARI | 3.26 | 4.59 |
104 | Jason Marquis | SD | 4.05 | 4.59 |
105 | David Phelps | NYY | 3.85 | 4.39 |
106 | Ian Kennedy | ARI | 3.48 | 4.28 |
107 | Jerome Williams | LAA | 2.59 | 4.19 |
108 | Hector Santiago | CHW | 1.96 | 4.16 |
109 | Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 3.89 | 4.09 |
110 | Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.93 | 4.06 |
111 | Scott Kazmir | CLE | 3.72 | 4.06 |
112 | Jake Westbrook | STL | 2.53 | 4.00 |
113 | Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.58 | 3.98 |
114 | Chris Archer | TB | 3.92 | 3.92 |
115 | Yusmeiro Petit | SF | 3.78 | 3.85 |
116 | Tony Cingrani | CIN | 2.54 | 3.74 |
117 | Brandon McCarthy | ARI | 1.99 | 3.72 |
118 | Dan Haren | WSH | 2.35 | 3.62 |
119 | Ross Ohlendorf | WSH | 3.17 | 3.57 |
120 | Jarred Cosart | HOU | 2.70 | 3.50 |
121 | Brett Oberholtzer | HOU | 2.85 | 3.45 |
122 | Henderson Alvarez | MIA | 2.43 | 3.36 |
123 | Jaime Garcia | STL | 2.29 | 3.23 |
124 | Zack Wheeler | NYM | 2.82 | 3.22 |
125 | Freddy Garcia | ATL | 2.31 | 3.11 |
126 | Tyson Ross | SD | 1.43 | 3.10 |
127 | Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.82 | 3.02 |
128 | Juan Nicasio | COL | 2.06 | 3.00 |
129 | Tom Koehler | MIA | 1.77 | 2.97 |
130 | Wandy Rodriguez | PIT | 2.34 | 2.94 |
131 | Garrett Richards | LAA | 1.91 | 2.91 |
132 | Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.50 | 2.90 |
133 | Jason Hammel | BAL | 2.57 | 2.84 |
134 | Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 1.54 | 2.81 |
135 | John Danks | CHW | 1.67 | 2.80 |
136 | Joe Saunders | SEA | 1.31 | 2.71 |
137 | Jordan Lyles | HOU | 1.42 | 2.69 |
138 | Edinson Volquez | LAD | 1.21 | 2.61 |
139 | Esmil Rogers | TOR | 2.19 | 2.59 |
140 | Edwin Jackson | CHC | 1.64 | 2.58 |
141 | Johnny Cueto | CIN | 1.74 | 2.54 |
142 | Jacob Turner | MIA | 1.80 | 2.47 |
143 | Tyler Thornburg | MIL | 1.87 | 2.47 |
144 | Robbie Erlin | SD | 2.09 | 2.35 |
145 | Dylan Axelrod | CHW | 0.85 | 2.32 |
146 | Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 1.49 | 2.23 |
147 | Chad Gaudin | SF | 1.80 | 2.20 |
148 | Ross Detwiler | WSH | 1.38 | 2.18 |
149 | Jeremy Hefner | NYM | 0.58 | 2.18 |
150 | Jon Garland | COL | 1.94 | 2.14 |
151 | Wade Davis | KC | 1.17 | 1.83 |
152 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | NYM | 1.81 | 1.81 |
153 | Chris Capuano | LAD | 1.34 | 1.80 |
154 | Roberto Hernandez | TB | 0.30 | 1.76 |
155 | Brandon Cumpton | PIT | 1.67 | 1.67 |
156 | John Lannan | PHI | 1.66 | 1.66 |
157 | Todd Redmond | TOR | 1.11 | 1.64 |
158 | Tanner Roark | WSH | 1.22 | 1.62 |
159 | Alfredo Aceves | BOS | 1.61 | 1.61 |
160 | Taylor Jordan | WSH | 0.88 | 1.61 |
161 | Kevin Slowey | MIA | 1.07 | 1.61 |
162 | Justin Grimm | TEX | 1.07 | 1.60 |
163 | Lucas Harrell | HOU | -0.43 | 1.50 |
164 | Chris Rusin | CHC | 0.23 | 1.23 |
165 | Brandon Morrow | TOR | 0.95 | 1.22 |
166 | Jeremy Bonderman | SEA | 0.61 | 1.21 |
167 | James McDonald | PIT | 0.78 | 1.18 |
168 | Carlos Villanueva | CHC | 0.55 | 1.09 |
169 | Tyler Lyons | STL | 0.82 | 1.02 |
170 | Erik Johnson | CHW | 1.00 | 1.00 |
171 | Stephen Fife | LAD | 0.78 | 0.98 |
172 | Brandon Beachy | ATL | 0.98 | 0.98 |
173 | Michael Wacha | STL | 0.32 | 0.92 |
174 | Andre Riezno | CHW | 0.31 | 0.91 |
175 | Josh Lindblom | TEX | 0.62 | 0.82 |
176 | Brett Anderson | OAK | 0.33 | 0.73 |
177 | Liam Hendriks | MIN | 0.50 | 0.70 |
178 | P.J. Walters | MIN | 0.41 | 0.61 |
179 | Jeanmar Gomez | PIT | 0.60 | 0.60 |
180 | Aaron Harang | NYM | -0.61 | 0.59 |
181 | Tyler Skaggs | ARI | 0.55 | 0.55 |
182 | Jenrry Mejia | NYM | 0.33 | 0.53 |
183 | Alex Sanabia | MIA | 0.26 | 0.46 |
184 | Shaun Marcum | NYM | -0.83 | 0.43 |
185 | Tommy Hanson | LAA | 0.13 | 0.40 |
186 | Carlos Torres | NYM | 0.16 | 0.36 |
187 | Alex Wood | ATL | 0.16 | 0.36 |
188 | Brandon Maurer | SEA | -0.95 | 0.31 |
189 | Andrew Albers | MIN | -0.50 | 0.30 |
190 | Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.29 | 0.29 |
191 | Jose Alvarez | DET | 0.13 | 0.26 |
192 | Zach Britton | BAL | 0.12 | 0.12 |
193 | Chien-Ming Wang | TOR | 0.11 | 0.11 |
194 | Danny Salazar | CLE | -0.14 | 0.06 |
195 | Vance Worley | MIN | -0.40 | -0.20 |
196 | Roy Halladay | PHI | -0.64 | -0.24 |
197 | Luis Mendoza | KC | -0.59 | -0.26 |
198 | Greg Reynolds | CIN | -0.46 | -0.26 |
199 | Barry Zito | SF | -0.78 | -0.31 |
200 | Nick Tepesch | TEX | -0.67 | -0.40 |
201 | Paul Clemens | HOU | -0.73 | -0.40 |
202 | Danny Duffy | KC | -0.41 | -0.41 |
203 | Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.41 | -0.41 |
204 | Scott Diamond | MIN | -1.22 | -0.42 |
205 | Ryan Vogelsong | SF | -0.65 | -0.45 |
206 | Hiram Burgos | MIL | -0.85 | -0.45 |
207 | Josh Johnson | TOR | -1.26 | -0.46 |
208 | Alfredo Figaro | MIL | -0.53 | -0.53 |
209 | Burch Smith | SD | -0.76 | -0.56 |
210 | Pedro Hernandez | MIN | -0.59 | -0.59 |
211 | J.A. Happ | TOR | -1.73 | -0.60 |
212 | Josh Beckett | LAD | -1.28 | -0.62 |
213 | Brad Peacock | HOU | -0.89 | -0.69 |
214 | Erik Bedard | HOU | -2.42 | -0.89 |
215 | Ted Lilly | LAD | -0.89 | -0.89 |
216 | Gavin Floyd | CHW | -1.30 | -0.90 |
217 | Phil Hughes | NYY | -2.75 | -0.95 |
218 | Jeff Francis | COL | -1.08 | -1.08 |
219 | Collin McHugh | COL | -1.10 | -1.10 |
220 | Chad Bettis | COL | -1.18 | -1.11 |
221 | Tom Gorzelanny | MIL | -1.66 | -1.19 |
222 | Philip Humber | HOU | -1.96 | -1.23 |
223 | Donovan Hand | MIL | -1.63 | -1.23 |
224 | Joe Blanton | LAA | -2.87 | -1.41 |
225 | Matt Magill | LAD | -1.75 | -1.42 |
226 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -1.97 | -1.51 |
227 | Tyler Cloyd | PHI | -1.53 | -1.53 |
228 | Allen Webster | BOS | -1.65 | -1.65 |
229 | Wade LeBlanc | MIA | -1.76 | -1.76 |
230 | Roy Oswalt | COL | -1.87 | -1.87 |
231 | Johnny Hellweg | MIL | -2.02 | -2.02 |
232 | Ethan Martin | PHI | -2.34 | -2.34 |
233 | Clayton Richard | SD | -2.74 | -2.34 |