Kershaw, Scherzer Top Leagues in Final Value Add of 233 Pitchers

Despite missing a half dozen starts this season, David Price surged to a No. 34 ranking in the www.valueaddbaseball.com database after winning the final start of the season and 4,728th start in the database. Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer finished as the top pitchers in their respective leagues by winning 86% of their starts in which they received any run support. Both deserve the Cy Young Awards they should be receiving shortly, though Scherzer received far more support.

The Dodgers gave Kershaw no chance to win (a 0.00 ERA Needed to win) in one-third (11 of 33 starts) of his starts. He won 19 of the other 22 starts, with support that would have resulted in just over seven wins if a replacement pitcher was pitching instead of him, so he added 11.71 Wins to the Dodgers win total this season. If Kershaw was out this season, Value Add projects the Dodgers would have finished tied with Arizona instead of winning the NL West by 11 games. In the 11 games in which Kershaw was given no chance, he saved the bullpen by averaging 6 2/3rds innings and only 1.7 earned runs, which gives him an adjustment of almost four to yield his MLB best 15.37 Value Add.

There were only three games in which the Tigers gave Scherzer no chance to win. However, he won 25 of the other 29 starts. While he received very strong support in those games, it is likely the Tigers would have only won about 11 of those games with a replacement pitcher, so he was worth an estimated 14.18 additional wins (the Raw Value Add) to the team. That would have left the Tigers 79-83 and nowhere near the playoffs.

An MLB team with an average line-up and bullpen would go about 53-109 if their starting rotation were all replacement players. Here are the final rankings for all 233 pitchers to start at least five games this season.

Rnk	Player	Team	Wins Added to Team	Value Add
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	11.71	15.37
2	Patrick Corbin	ARI	13.21	14.81
3	Max Scherzer	DET	14.18	14.58
4	Mat Latos	CIN	11.93	14.06
5	Chris Sale	CHW	9.26	14.06
6	Adam Wainwright	STL	12.64	13.78
7	James Shields	KC	11.69	13.69
8	Julio Teheran	ATL	11.77	13.30
9	Jordan Zimmermann	WSH	12.02	13.22
10	Cliff Lee	PHI	10.53	13.13
11	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	10.46	12.79
12	Zack Greinke	LAD	12.19	12.39
13	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	9.54	11.74
14	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	9.99	11.73
15	Doug Fister	DET	9.01	11.61
16	Chris Tillman	BAL	10.06	11.46
17	Yu Darvish	TEX	9.65	11.45
18	Bartolo Colon	OAK	10.65	11.25
19	Madison Bumgarner	SF	8.15	11.02
20	Jorge De La Rosa	COL	10.24	10.97
21	Derek Holland	TEX	8.50	10.97
22	C.J. Wilson	LAA	9.13	10.86
23	A.J. Griffin	OAK	9.47	10.80
24	Kris Medlen	ATL	9.93	10.66
25	Jeremy Guthrie	KC	9.10	10.63
26	Shelby Miller	STL	9.66	10.53
27	Ricky Nolasco	LAD	8.08	10.41
28	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	9.45	10.38
29	Mark Buehrle	TOR	9.44	10.38
30	R.A. Dickey	TOR	9.14	10.34
31	Jose Fernandez	MIA	9.43	10.29
32	John Lackey	BOS	7.38	10.11
33	Mike Minor	ATL	8.72	9.92
34	David Price	TB	7.87	9.87
35	Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	9.00	9.87
36	Kyle Lohse	MIL	8.04	9.84
37	Mike Leake	CIN	8.99	9.79
38	Homer Bailey	CIN	8.05	9.79
39	Jon Lester	BOS	9.07	9.73
40	Matt Harvey	NYM	7.19	9.52
41	Clay Buchholz	BOS	9.04	9.24
42	Cole Hamels	PHI	5.94	9.21
43	Jered Weaver	LAA	8.40	9.14
44	Justin Verlander	DET	5.66	9.12
45	Anibal Sanchez	DET	7.96	8.89
46	Dillon Gee	NYM	7.82	8.89
47	Ervin Santana	KC	7.46	8.86
48	Felix Hernandez	SEA	5.51	8.71
49	Jarrod Parker	OAK	6.50	8.70
50	Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	7.62	8.69
51	Rick Porcello	DET	7.79	8.66
52	Francisco Liriano	PIT	8.25	8.65
53	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	7.50	8.57
54	Jeff Samardzija	CHC	5.93	8.46
55	A.J. Burnett	PIT	6.35	8.41
56	Jose Quintana	CHW	6.56	8.22
57	Ryan Dempster	BOS	6.25	8.05
58	Travis Wood	CHC	5.85	8.05
59	Justin Masterson	CLE	7.49	7.96
60	Lance Lynn	STL	7.08	7.88
61	Matt Moore	TB	7.62	7.88
62	Matt Garza	TEX	7.48	7.88
63	Andrew Cashner	SD	5.50	7.70
64	Gio Gonzalez	WSH	5.76	7.69
65	CC Sabathia	NYY	7.34	7.68
66	Ivan Nova	NYY	6.20	7.54
67	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	5.08	7.15
68	Kevin Correia	MIN	5.15	7.08
69	Tim Lincecum	SF	5.24	7.04
70	Eric Stults	SD	5.30	6.96
71	Felix Doubront	BOS	5.74	6.81
72	Martin Perez	TEX	6.16	6.76
73	Marco Estrada	MIL	5.75	6.75
74	Randall Delgado	ARI	5.77	6.57
75	Matt Cain	SF	2.84	6.57
76	Scott Feldman	BAL	5.92	6.46
77	Andy Pettitte	NYY	4.77	6.44
78	Wily Peralta	MIL	4.84	6.31
79	Jake Peavy	BOS	5.50	6.23
80	Gerrit Cole	PIT	5.76	6.22
81	Jeff Locke	PIT	4.66	6.06
82	Joe Kelly	STL	5.56	6.03
83	Alex Cobb	TB	5.10	5.97
84	Dan Straily	OAK	5.10	5.97
85	Tommy Milone	OAK	4.44	5.90
86	Corey Kluber	CLE	4.81	5.87
87	Yovani Gallardo	MIL	4.46	5.73
88	Bud Norris	BAL	4.33	5.73
89	Paul Maholm	ATL	3.71	5.65
90	Wade Miley	ARI	4.78	5.52
91	Bruce Chen	KC	4.88	5.48
92	Tim Hudson	ATL	4.61	5.41
93	Charlie Morton	PIT	4.19	5.39
94	Samuel Deduno	MIN	4.92	5.39
95	Stephen Strasburg	WSH	3.19	5.19
96	Jonathon Niese	NYM	3.37	5.17
97	Jonathan Pettibone	PHI	5.02	5.08
98	Zach McAllister	CLE	4.59	4.86
99	Nate Eovaldi	MIA	3.84	4.84
100	Alexi Ogando	TEX	3.93	4.79
101	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	4.64	4.78
102	Jason Vargas	LAA	4.16	4.69
103	Trevor Cahill	ARI	3.26	4.59
104	Jason Marquis	SD	4.05	4.59
105	David Phelps	NYY	3.85	4.39
106	Ian Kennedy	ARI	3.48	4.28
107	Jerome Williams	LAA	2.59	4.19
108	Hector Santiago	CHW	1.96	4.16
109	Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	3.89	4.09
110	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	1.93	4.06
111	Scott Kazmir	CLE	3.72	4.06
112	Jake Westbrook	STL	2.53	4.00
113	Tyler Chatwood	COL	2.58	3.98
114	Chris Archer	TB	3.92	3.92
115	Yusmeiro Petit	SF	3.78	3.85
116	Tony Cingrani	CIN	2.54	3.74
117	Brandon McCarthy	ARI	1.99	3.72
118	Dan Haren	WSH	2.35	3.62
119	Ross Ohlendorf	WSH	3.17	3.57
120	Jarred Cosart	HOU	2.70	3.50
121	Brett Oberholtzer	HOU	2.85	3.45
122	Henderson Alvarez	MIA	2.43	3.36
123	Jaime Garcia	STL	2.29	3.23
124	Zack Wheeler	NYM	2.82	3.22
125	Freddy Garcia	ATL	2.31	3.11
126	Tyson Ross	SD	1.43	3.10
127	Jake Arrieta	CHC	2.82	3.02
128	Juan Nicasio	COL	2.06	3.00
129	Tom Koehler	MIA	1.77	2.97
130	Wandy Rodriguez	PIT	2.34	2.94
131	Garrett Richards	LAA	1.91	2.91
132	Sonny Gray	OAK	2.50	2.90
133	Jason Hammel	BAL	2.57	2.84
134	Mike Pelfrey	MIN	1.54	2.81
135	John Danks	CHW	1.67	2.80
136	Joe Saunders	SEA	1.31	2.71
137	Jordan Lyles	HOU	1.42	2.69
138	Edinson Volquez	LAD	1.21	2.61
139	Esmil Rogers	TOR	2.19	2.59
140	Edwin Jackson	CHC	1.64	2.58
141	Johnny Cueto	CIN	1.74	2.54
142	Jacob Turner	MIA	1.80	2.47
143	Tyler Thornburg	MIL	1.87	2.47
144	Robbie Erlin	SD	2.09	2.35
145	Dylan Axelrod	CHW	0.85	2.32
146	Erasmo Ramirez	SEA	1.49	2.23
147	Chad Gaudin	SF	1.80	2.20
148	Ross Detwiler	WSH	1.38	2.18
149	Jeremy Hefner	NYM	0.58	2.18
150	Jon Garland	COL	1.94	2.14
151	Wade Davis	KC	1.17	1.83
152	Daisuke Matsuzaka	NYM	1.81	1.81
153	Chris Capuano	LAD	1.34	1.80
154	Roberto Hernandez	TB	0.30	1.76
155	Brandon Cumpton	PIT	1.67	1.67
156	John Lannan	PHI	1.66	1.66
157	Todd Redmond	TOR	1.11	1.64
158	Tanner Roark	WSH	1.22	1.62
159	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	1.61	1.61
160	Taylor Jordan	WSH	0.88	1.61
161	Kevin Slowey	MIA	1.07	1.61
162	Justin Grimm	TEX	1.07	1.60
163	Lucas Harrell	HOU	-0.43	1.50
164	Chris Rusin	CHC	0.23	1.23
165	Brandon Morrow	TOR	0.95	1.22
166	Jeremy Bonderman	SEA	0.61	1.21
167	James McDonald	PIT	0.78	1.18
168	Carlos Villanueva	CHC	0.55	1.09
169	Tyler Lyons	STL	0.82	1.02
170	Erik Johnson	CHW	1.00	1.00
171	Stephen Fife	LAD	0.78	0.98
172	Brandon Beachy	ATL	0.98	0.98
173	Michael Wacha	STL	0.32	0.92
174	Andre Riezno	CHW	0.31	0.91
175	Josh Lindblom	TEX	0.62	0.82
176	Brett Anderson	OAK	0.33	0.73
177	Liam Hendriks	MIN	0.50	0.70
178	P.J. Walters	MIN	0.41	0.61
179	Jeanmar Gomez	PIT	0.60	0.60
180	Aaron Harang	NYM	-0.61	0.59
181	Tyler Skaggs	ARI	0.55	0.55
182	Jenrry Mejia	NYM	0.33	0.53
183	Alex Sanabia	MIA	0.26	0.46
184	Shaun Marcum	NYM	-0.83	0.43
185	Tommy Hanson	LAA	0.13	0.40
186	Carlos Torres	NYM	0.16	0.36
187	Alex Wood	ATL	0.16	0.36
188	Brandon Maurer	SEA	-0.95	0.31
189	Andrew Albers	MIN	-0.50	0.30
190	Kevin Gausman	BAL	0.29	0.29
191	Jose Alvarez	DET	0.13	0.26
192	Zach Britton	BAL	0.12	0.12
193	Chien-Ming Wang	TOR	0.11	0.11
194	Danny Salazar	CLE	-0.14	0.06
195	Vance Worley	MIN	-0.40	-0.20
196	Roy Halladay	PHI	-0.64	-0.24
197	Luis Mendoza	KC	-0.59	-0.26
198	Greg Reynolds	CIN	-0.46	-0.26
199	Barry Zito	SF	-0.78	-0.31
200	Nick Tepesch	TEX	-0.67	-0.40
201	Paul Clemens	HOU	-0.73	-0.40
202	Danny Duffy	KC	-0.41	-0.41
203	Kyle Gibson	MIN	-0.41	-0.41
204	Scott Diamond	MIN	-1.22	-0.42
205	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	-0.65	-0.45
206	Hiram Burgos	MIL	-0.85	-0.45
207	Josh Johnson	TOR	-1.26	-0.46
208	Alfredo Figaro	MIL	-0.53	-0.53
209	Burch Smith	SD	-0.76	-0.56
210	Pedro Hernandez	MIN	-0.59	-0.59
211	J.A. Happ	TOR	-1.73	-0.60
212	Josh Beckett	LAD	-1.28	-0.62
213	Brad Peacock	HOU	-0.89	-0.69
214	Erik Bedard	HOU	-2.42	-0.89
215	Ted Lilly	LAD	-0.89	-0.89
216	Gavin Floyd	CHW	-1.30	-0.90
217	Phil Hughes	NYY	-2.75	-0.95
218	Jeff Francis	COL	-1.08	-1.08
219	Collin McHugh	COL	-1.10	-1.10
220	Chad Bettis	COL	-1.18	-1.11
221	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	-1.66	-1.19
222	Philip Humber	HOU	-1.96	-1.23
223	Donovan Hand	MIL	-1.63	-1.23
224	Joe Blanton	LAA	-2.87	-1.41
225	Matt Magill	LAD	-1.75	-1.42
226	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	-1.97	-1.51
227	Tyler Cloyd	PHI	-1.53	-1.53
228	Allen Webster	BOS	-1.65	-1.65
229	Wade LeBlanc	MIA	-1.76	-1.76
230	Roy Oswalt	COL	-1.87	-1.87
231	Johnny Hellweg	MIL	-2.02	-2.02
232	Ethan Martin	PHI	-2.34	-2.34
233	Clayton Richard	SD	-2.74	-2.34