A replacement-level pitcher going eight innings in Dodger Stadium with just two runs of support has only an 18% chance of winning a game, but Ricky Nolasco won 2-0 under those circumstances Thursday. Value Add gives the team 0.18 for the win, while Nolasco is credited with 0.82 of the win to move up to 19th in Value Add (see pitchers ranked 1st through 210th below).
The www.valueaddbaseball.com database will be updated this weekend to include game-by-game accounts of 3,652 starts (any by a pitcher with at least five starts), 21,916 innings pitched with 9,485 earned runs allowed for a 3.90 ERA. The database also includes game-by-game breakdowns of the 15,321 runs scored to support these starters, as well as then 805 unearned runs allowed behind them, and 4,843 allowed by their bullpen, which totals 9,673 Net Runs of support for an average 3.88 ERA Needed to win. However, because any ERA Needed below 0.00 is recorded as a 0.00 for a given game, the actual average ERA Needed to win a given game is 4.65.
The new rankings below are through Thursday’s games, so do not include Nolasco’s Friday night start, but in a four-game playoff series the Dodgers would now have four Top 20 pitchers. Clayton Kershaw is 2nd, Hyun-Jin Ryu is 10th, Zack Greinke is 18th despite missing a part of the season with injuries, and Nolasco was 31st before Friday’s start shot him into the Top 20. The Dodgers are also the only team with nine total pitchers on the list, as they had some terrible pitching early in the year before acquiring Nolasco from Miami.
The only team with three Top 20 pitchers are the Reds (Matt Latos, Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo) and the only other team with two Top 20 pitchers is Colorado (Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin) who go unnoticed as they pitch through the mile high air in Colorado.Here is the entire list through Thursday’s game.
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Rnk | Row Labels | Team | Value Add |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Patrick Corbin | ARI | 15.1 |
2 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 12.7 |
3 | Max Scherzer | DET | 11.8 |
4 | Matt Latos | CIN | 11.8 |
5 | Jordan Zimmermann | WSH | 10.9 |
6 | Derek Holland | TEX | 10.6 |
7 | Julio Teheran | ATL | 10.4 |
8 | Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 10.2 |
9 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 10.1 |
10 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | LAD | 10.1 |
11 | Jorge De La Rosa | COL | 9.9 |
12 | Jhoulys Chacin | COL | 9.9 |
13 | James Shields | KC | 9.8 |
14 | Hiroki Kuroda | NYY | 9.8 |
15 | Cliff Lee | PHI | 9.8 |
16 | Mike Leake | CIN | 9.6 |
17 | Chris Sale | CHW | 9.6 |
18 | Zack Greinke | LAD | 9.1 |
19 | Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 9.0 |
20 | Chris Tillman | BAL | 8.9 |
21 | Matt Harvey | NYM | 8.9 |
22 | Bartolo Colon | OAK | 8.9 |
23 | Yu Darvish | TEX | 8.9 |
24 | Mark Buehrle | TOR | 8.8 |
25 | Felix Hernandez | SEA | 8.7 |
26 | Justin Masterson | CLE | 8.7 |
27 | Mike Minor | ATL | 8.6 |
28 | Jose Fernandez | MIA | 8.6 |
29 | A.J. Griffin | OAK | 8.4 |
30 | Madison Bumgarner | SF | 8.3 |
31 | Ricky Nolasco | LAD | 8.2 |
32 | Francisco Liriano | PIT | 8.1 |
33 | Shelby Miller | STL | 8.0 |
34 | Kyle Lohse | MIL | 7.9 |
35 | C.J. Wilson | LAA | 7.8 |
36 | Jeremy Guthrie | KC | 7.6 |
37 | Doug Fister | DET | 7.5 |
38 | CC Sabathia | NYY | 7.4 |
39 | Jarrod Parker | OAK | 7.3 |
40 | Clay Buchholz | BOS | 7.3 |
41 | Jon Lester | BOS | 7.3 |
42 | Matt Garza | TEX | 7.3 |
43 | Matt Moore | TB | 7.2 |
44 | Homer Bailey | CIN | 7.1 |
45 | Kris Medlen | ATL | 7.1 |
46 | Anibal Sanchez | DET | 7.0 |
47 | Felix Doubront | BOS | 7.0 |
48 | Ervin Santana | KC | 6.9 |
49 | Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 6.9 |
50 | Jeff Samardzija | CHC | 6.9 |
51 | Lance Lynn | STL | 6.8 |
52 | R.A. Dickey | TOR | 6.8 |
53 | David Price | TB | 6.8 |
54 | Bud Norris | BAL | 6.8 |
55 | Kyle Kendrick | PHI | 6.7 |
56 | Jeff Locke | PIT | 6.7 |
57 | Jered Weaver | LAA | 6.7 |
58 | Dillon Gee | NYM | 6.6 |
59 | Justin Verlander | DET | 6.4 |
60 | Ryan Dempster | BOS | 6.2 |
61 | Eric Stults | SD | 6.1 |
62 | Travis Wood | CHC | 6.0 |
63 | Jonathan Pettibone | PHI | 6.0 |
64 | A.J. Burnett | PIT | 5.9 |
65 | John Lackey | BOS | 5.9 |
66 | Gio Gonzalez | WSH | 5.8 |
67 | Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.8 |
68 | Samuel Deduno | MIN | 5.6 |
69 | Scott Feldman | CHC | 5.6 |
70 | Zach McAllister | CLE | 5.4 |
71 | Tim Hudson | ATL | 5.4 |
72 | Ivan Nova | NYY | 5.4 |
73 | Kevin Correia | MIN | 5.3 |
74 | Rick Porcello | DET | 5.3 |
75 | Jeremy Hellickson | TB | 5.3 |
76 | Ubaldo Jimenez | CLE | 5.3 |
77 | Randall Delgado | ARI | 5.3 |
78 | Matt Cain | SF | 5.3 |
79 | Wily Peralta | MIL | 5.2 |
80 | Cole Hamels | PHI | 4.9 |
81 | Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.8 |
82 | Jason Marquis | SD | 4.8 |
83 | Andrew Cashner | SD | 4.7 |
84 | Jake Westbrook | STL | 4.7 |
85 | Wade Miley | ARI | 4.6 |
86 | Martin Perez | TEX | 4.6 |
87 | Jake Peavy | BOS | 4.6 |
88 | Marco Estrada | MIL | 4.4 |
89 | David Phelps | NYY | 4.3 |
90 | Alex Cobb | TB | 4.3 |
91 | Edinson Volquez | SD | 4.3 |
92 | Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 4.2 |
93 | Dylan Axelrod | CHW | 4.1 |
94 | Hector Santiago | CHW | 4.1 |
95 | Tommy Milone | OAK | 4.1 |
96 | Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.0 |
97 | Jacob Turner | MIA | 3.9 |
98 | Joe Kelly | STL | 3.9 |
99 | Stephen Strasburg | WSH | 3.9 |
100 | Chris Archer | TB | 3.7 |
101 | Edwin Jackson | CHC | 3.7 |
102 | Ian Kennedy | SD | 3.6 |
103 | Charlie Morton | PIT | 3.6 |
104 | Tim Lincecum | SF | 3.6 |
105 | Tony Cingrani | CIN | 3.6 |
106 | Joe Saunders | SEA | 3.5 |
107 | Andy Pettitte | NYY | 3.5 |
108 | Alexi Ogando | TEX | 3.3 |
109 | Paul Maholm | ATL | 3.3 |
110 | Jason Vargas | LAA | 3.3 |
111 | Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.2 |
112 | Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 3.2 |
113 | Bruce Chen | KC | 3.2 |
114 | Juan Nicasio | COL | 3.2 |
115 | Zack Wheeler | NYM | 3.1 |
116 | Jarred Cosart | HOU | 3.1 |
117 | Jaime Garcia | STL | 3.0 |
118 | Dan Straily | OAK | 2.9 |
119 | Jordan Lyles | HOU | 2.9 |
120 | Wandy Rodriguez | PIT | 2.9 |
121 | Dan Haren | WSH | 2.8 |
122 | Scott Kazmir | CLE | 2.6 |
123 | Jason Hammel | BAL | 2.6 |
124 | Jon Garland | COL | 2.6 |
125 | Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.5 |
126 | Nate Eovaldi | MIA | 2.5 |
127 | Henderson Alvarez | MIA | 2.5 |
128 | John Danks | CHW | 2.4 |
129 | Jonathon Niese | NYM | 2.4 |
130 | Tom Koehler | MIA | 2.4 |
131 | Kevin Slowey | MIA | 2.4 |
132 | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | 2.3 |
133 | Ross Detwiler | WSH | 2.3 |
134 | Erasmo Ramirez | SEA | 2.3 |
135 | Chad Gaudin | SF | 2.2 |
136 | Jeremy Hefner | NYM | 2.1 |
137 | Garrett Richards | LAA | 2.1 |
138 | Trevor Cahill | ARI | 2.1 |
139 | Wade Davis | KC | 2.0 |
140 | John Lannan | PHI | 2.0 |
141 | Stephen Fife | LAD | 2.0 |
142 | Chris Capuano | LAD | 1.8 |
143 | Chris Rusin | CHC | 1.8 |
144 | Alfredo Aceves | BOS | 1.6 |
145 | Roberto Hernandez | TB | 1.6 |
146 | Tyson Ross | SD | 1.6 |
147 | Esmil Rogers | TOR | 1.5 |
148 | Alex Wood | ATL | 1.5 |
149 | Brandon Morrow | TOR | 1.5 |
150 | Freddy Garcia | BAL | 1.5 |
151 | Taylor Jordan | WSH | 1.4 |
152 | Andre Rienzo | CHW | 1.4 |
153 | Phil Hughes | NYY | 1.3 |
154 | Justin Grimm | TEX | 1.2 |
155 | Jeremy Bonderman | DET | 1.2 |
156 | Carlos Villanueva | CHC | 1.1 |
157 | James McDonald | PIT | 1.1 |
158 | Lucas Harrell | HOU | 1.0 |
159 | Brandon Beachy | ATL | 1.0 |
160 | Brandon McCarthy | ARI | 1.0 |
161 | Alex Sanabia | MIA | 0.9 |
162 | Jerome Williams | LAA | 0.9 |
163 | Jose Alvarez | DET | 0.9 |
164 | Zach Britton | BAL | 0.9 |
165 | Aaron Harang | SEA | 0.9 |
166 | Johnny Cueto | CIN | 0.8 |
167 | Josh Lindblom | TEX | 0.8 |
168 | Jake Arrieta | BAL | 0.8 |
169 | Chien-Ming Wang | TOR | 0.7 |
170 | Jeanmar Gomez | PIT | 0.7 |
171 | Tyler Skaggs | ARI | 0.6 |
172 | PJ Walters | MIN | 0.6 |
173 | Jenrry Mejia | NYM | 0.6 |
174 | Barry Zito | SF | 0.6 |
175 | Tyler Lyons | STL | 0.6 |
176 | Brett Anderson | OAK | 0.5 |
177 | Tommy Hanson | LAA | 0.5 |
178 | Chad Bettis | COL | 0.5 |
179 | Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.5 |
180 | Tyler Cloyd | PHI | 0.4 |
181 | Pedro Hernandez | MIN | 0.4 |
182 | Todd Redmond | TOR | 0.3 |
183 | Nick Tepesch | TEX | 0.1 |
184 | Luis Mendoza | KC | 0.0 |
185 | Brandon Maurer | SEA | 0.0 |
186 | Shaun Marcum | NYM | -0.1 |
187 | Vance Worley | MIN | -0.2 |
188 | J.A. Happ | TOR | -0.3 |
189 | Hiram Burgos | MIL | -0.4 |
190 | Kyle Gibson | MIN | -0.4 |
191 | Alfredo Figaro | MIL | -0.5 |
192 | Scott Diamond | MIN | -0.5 |
193 | Erik Bedard | HOU | -0.6 |
194 | Josh Johnson | TOR | -0.6 |
195 | Ted Lilly | LAD | -0.6 |
196 | Ryan Vogelsong | SF | -0.7 |
197 | Josh Beckett | LAD | -0.8 |
198 | Roy Halladay | PHI | -0.9 |
199 | Gavin Floyd | CHW | -0.9 |
200 | Allen Webster | BOS | -1.1 |
201 | Donovan Hand | MIL | -1.2 |
202 | Tom Gorzelanny | MIL | -1.2 |
203 | Matt Magill | LAD | -1.3 |
204 | Wade LeBlanc | MIA | -1.3 |
205 | Philip Humber | HOU | -1.3 |
206 | Brad Peacock | HOU | -1.5 |
207 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -1.5 |
208 | Jeff Francis | COL | -1.7 |
209 | Joe Blanton | LAA | -1.9 |
210 | Clayton Richard | SD | -2.2 |
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