Injury-Free AL Central Projections

If every player in the AL Central had been healthy the first half, the Indians would likely be within a half game of the Tigers for the AL Central lead.

Detroit benefited from a healthy first half, while Cleveland’s catcher Yan Gomes played only 39 games. If he had played 75 games, the Indians would have likely picked up at least another win in the standings. Kansas City was the most injury prone with four players who could have helped them if they played a full first half.

The stats are more suspect regarding catcher Chris Herrmann of the Twins, who played very well for a few games and thus mathematically projects to be a strong player. However, in reality he was only a .238 hitter in the minors. While most assume the Tigers will eventually pull away, they have been blessed with health and the Indians look like a serious threat if both teams are healthy down the stretch. A healthy second-half for the Royals gives them an outside shot if the Tigers stumble. 

AL Central	Act W	Act L	Full Strength	Proj W	Proj L	Proj %	Proj GB
Detroit	52	42	-1	51	43	0.543	0.0
Cleveland	51	44	0	51	44	0.537	0.5
Kansas City	43	49	2	45	47	0.489	5.0
Minnesota	39	53	-1	38	54	0.413	12.0
Chicago Sox	37	55	-1	36	56	0.391	14.0

The following are the players in the division who are expected to play most or all of the second half of the season, and probably would have added at least a win (0.5 or above rounded up) to the team’s win total in the first half if they could have played at least 75 games (or come out of the bullpen for 30 appearances or been on the mound for 15 starts).

To be listed a player must have been worth at least 0.5 wins prior to the break or have been worth at least 1.2 wins in their last full season before an injury forced them to miss the first half. Calculations are based on the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat as reported on http://www.baseball-reference.com/. 

A player who was worth 0.5 Wins in 25 games played would have been worth an additional 1.0 Wins if he had played 75 games in the first half, while a player who was worth 1.0 wins in 50 games would have been worth an additional 0.5 Wins if he had played 75 games. Star players who missed the entire first half are credited with 40% of their WAR for the last full season they played. Players who are not expected to return by early August are not considered in these projections.

Team	AL Central – If they’d been healthy	WAR	GP	If played…	…Extra Wins
Cle	Lonnie Chisenhall	1	47	75	0.6
Cle	Yan Gomes	1.2	39	75	1.1
Cle	Ryan Raburn	1.5	55	75	0.5
CWS	Gordon Beckham	1.2	44	75	0.8
Det	Matt Tuiasosopo	0.9	41	75	0.7
Det	Octavio Dotel (2012)	1.2	0	75	0.5
KC	David Lough	1.9	47	75	1.1
KC	George Kottaras	0.6	28	75	1.0
KC	Jarrod Dyson	0.7	33	75	0.9
KC	Felipe Paulino (2012)	1.9	0	75	0.8
Min	Chris Herrmann	0.5	7	75	0.9