Last week I put myself on the line prior to the Redskins playoff game by stating bluntly that the Seattle Seahawks were the best team in the NFL the second half of the year. After the Seahawks backed up that statement by being the only road team to win their playoff game, Nate Silver followed our lead. Just two months after Silver picked the Seahawks to lose at home to the lowly New York Jets, he went on ESPN today to pick them to go to the Superbowl. Here are the analytics that indicate he may be overemphasizing the Seahawks 58-0 win against the Cardinals over more impressive late season wins by the Falcons and Packers:
The problem with most analytics is that every point is just as valuable in a calculation. This can only be solved by our system of using the square root of victory margins to rank teams. For example, the Cardinals combined margin of victory against the Dolphins and Cardinals two weeks apart was 55 points.
However, that gives equal weight to the final touchdown the Seahawks scored to make it 58-0 against the Cardinals and the touchdown they did NOT score in the 21-24 loss to the Dolphins. In our system, the final touchdown against the Cardinals barely changed the Seahawks rating, improving the square root of their margin of victory only 0.48 (7.14 was the square root of a 51-point win while 7.62 was the square root of their actual 58-point win. However, if they had instead scored that extra touchdown against the Dolphins it would have been worth more than 10 times as much as the final. score verses the Dolphins, changing them from a -1.56 (3 point loss) to a 2.39 (4-point win) for an improvement of 4.95.
When you run the numbers for every game played by the eight remaining playoff teams, the 58-0 win over the Cardinals is only the 40th best performance of the year:
1. Green Bay’s 42-24 win at Houston in Week 6 (7.55 Total)
2. San Francisco’s 41-34 win at New England in Week 15 (7.40)
3. Seattle’s 42-13 win at home against San Francisco in Week 16 (7.17)
4. Atlanta’s 34-0 win at home against the NY Giants in Week 15 (7.14)
5. Denver’s 34-17 in at Baltimore in week 15 (6.96) You can look at how well each team performed every week of the year below.
In addition to the overall Total average performance for the year, we list their “streak” just to the left of that total. This gives a weighted score multiplying their last meaningful game (we skipped games in which starters didn’t play in Week 17) multiplied by 5, then the next to last game by 4, etc. Here is how the match-ups look for the this weekend:
1. Denver has a clear edge over Baltimore. Whether going by the Season Total (2.55 to 1.13 in favor of Denver) or the Weighted Streak total (3.81 to 2.71) Denver is more than 1 rating point higher even before adding the 1.00 for home advantage, so a clear favorite. Once you square the margin back for the total it’s Denver by 5.85 based on the season or 4.41 based on the hotter team – but the formula doesn’t know Ray Lewis missed a lot of those game! If both home teams win in the AFC, it would be Denver by 2.28 over the Patriots or 3.84 if based on the hotter team.
2. By the same math, San Francisco is only 1.46 better than the Packers for the season by the Packers are a full 4.79 points better based on who is hottest. The Packers would be a very slight favorite over the Seahawks in Green Bay, but the Seahawks would be have the edge as the hotter team over San Francisco after blowing them out late in the season.
3. The Falcons would be a 0.55 point favorite vs. Seattle, but based on who is hottest the Seahawks would be a 3.61 point favorite.
4. New England would be the surest best this weekend, at 4.37 better than Houston for the season and 6.15 based on who is hottest. Below is the table for the ratings of every game played by every playoff team this year:
| WK | Atlanta season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City | 40 | 24 | 16 | 4.00 | 1.00 | -3.66 | 1.34 |
| 2 | Denver | 27 | 21 | 6 | 2.45 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 4.91 |
| 3 | San Diego | 27 | 3 | 24 | 4.90 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 5.90 |
| 4 | Carolina | 30 | 28 | 2 | 1.41 | -1.00 | -0.61 | -0.20 |
| 5 | Washington | 24 | 17 | 7 | 2.65 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 5.38 |
| 6 | Oakland | 23 | 20 | 3 | 1.73 | -1.00 | -3.09 | -2.36 |
| 8 | Philadelphia | 30 | 17 | 13 | 3.61 | 1.00 | -3.20 | 1.40 |
| 9 | Dallas | 19 | 13 | 6 | 2.45 | -1.00 | -1.22 | 0.22 |
| 10 | New Orleans | 27 | 31 | -4 | -2.00 | 1.00 | 0.66 | -0.34 |
| 11 | Arizona | 23 | 19 | 4 | 2.00 | -1.00 | -2.59 | -1.59 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.56 | 1.44 |
| 13 | New Orleans | 23 | 13 | 10 | 3.16 | -1.00 | 0.66 | 2.82 |
| 14 | Carolina | 20 | 30 | -10 | -3.16 | 1.00 | -0.61 | -2.77 |
| 15 | NY Giants | 34 | 0 | 34 | 5.83 | -1.00 | 2.30 | 7.14 |
| 16 | Detroit | 31 | 18 | 13 | 3.61 | 1.00 | -2.02 | 2.59 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 22 | -5 | -2.24 | -1.00 | -0.56 | -3.80 |
| Tot Atlanta | streak 3.43 | 1.38 | ||||||
| WK | Baltimore Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Cincinnati | 44 | 13 | 31 | 5.57 | -1.00 | 2.11 | 6.67 |
| 2 | Philadelphia | 23 | 24 | -1 | -1.00 | 1.00 | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| 3 | New England | 31 | 30 | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| 4 | Cleveland | 23 | 16 | 7 | 2.65 | -1.00 | -2.03 | -0.39 |
| 5 | Kansas City | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.73 | 1.00 | -3.66 | -0.93 |
| 6 | Dallas | 31 | 29 | 2 | 1.41 | -1.00 | -1.22 | -0.81 |
| 7 | Houston | 13 | 43 | -30 | -5.48 | 1.00 | 2.30 | -2.17 |
| 9 | Cleveland | 25 | 15 | 10 | 3.16 | 1.00 | -2.03 | 2.13 |
| 10 | Oakland | 55 | 20 | 35 | 5.92 | -1.00 | -3.09 | 1.82 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | 13 | 10 | 3 | 1.73 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 3.90 |
| 12 | San Diego (OT) | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 20 | 23 | -3 | -1.73 | -1.00 | 1.17 | -1.56 |
| 14 | Washington (OT) | 28 | 31 | -3 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 |
| 15 | Denver | 17 | 34 | -17 | -4.12 | -1.00 | 3.46 | -1.66 |
| 16 | New York | 33 | 14 | 19 | 4.36 | -1.00 | 2.30 | 5.66 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | 17 | 23 | -6 | -2.45 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 0.66 |
| 18 | Indianapolis | 24 | 9 | 15 | 3.87 | -1.00 | -1.37 | 1.50 |
| Tot Baltimore | streak 2.71 | 1.13 | ||||||
| WK | Denver Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Pittsburgh | 31 | 19 | 12 | 3.46 | -1.00 | 1.17 | 3.64 |
| 2 | Atlanta | 21 | 27 | -6 | -2.45 | 1.00 | 2.74 | 1.29 |
| 3 | Houston | 25 | 31 | -6 | -2.45 | -1.00 | 2.30 | -1.14 |
| 4 | Oakland | 37 | 6 | 31 | 5.57 | -1.00 | -3.09 | 1.48 |
| 5 | New England | 21 | 31 | -10 | -3.16 | 1.00 | 3.76 | 1.60 |
| 6 | San Diego | 35 | 24 | 11 | 3.32 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 4.32 |
| 8 | New Orleans | 34 | 14 | 20 | 4.47 | -1.00 | 0.66 | 4.13 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 31 | 23 | 8 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 2.11 | 5.93 |
| 10 | Carolina | 36 | 14 | 22 | 4.69 | 1.00 | -0.61 | 5.08 |
| 11 | San Diego | 30 | 23 | 7 | 2.65 | -1.00 | 0.00 | 1.65 |
| 12 | Kansas City | 17 | 9 | 8 | 2.83 | 1.00 | -3.66 | 0.17 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | 31 | 23 | 8 | 2.83 | -1.00 | -0.56 | 1.27 |
| 14 | Oakland | 26 | 13 | 13 | 3.61 | 1.00 | -3.09 | 1.51 |
| 15 | Baltimore | 34 | 17 | 17 | 4.12 | 1.00 | 1.84 | 6.96 |
| 16 | Cleveland | 34 | 12 | 22 | 4.69 | -1.00 | -2.03 | 1.66 |
| 17 | Kansas City | 38 | 3 | 35 | 5.92 | -1.00 | -3.66 | 1.26 |
| Tot Denver | streak 3.81 | 2.55 | ||||||
| WK | Green Bay Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | San Francisco | 22 | 30 | -8 | -2.83 | -1.00 | 2.78 | -1.04 |
| 2 | Chicago | 23 | 10 | 13 | 3.61 | -1.00 | 2.47 | 5.08 |
| 3 | Seattle | 12 | 14 | -2 | -1.41 | 1.00 | 3.23 | 2.82 |
| 4 | New Orleans | 28 | 27 | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| 5 | Indianapolis | 27 | 30 | -3 | -1.73 | 1.00 | -1.37 | -2.10 |
| 6 | Houston | 42 | 24 | 18 | 4.24 | 1.00 | 2.30 | 7.55 |
| 7 | St. Louis | 30 | 20 | 10 | 3.16 | 1.00 | -1.75 | 2.41 |
| 8 | Jacksonville | 24 | 15 | 9 | 3.00 | -1.00 | -3.44 | -1.44 |
| 9 | Arizona | 31 | 17 | 14 | 3.74 | -1.00 | -2.59 | 0.16 |
| 11 | Detroit | 24 | 20 | 4 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -2.02 | 0.98 |
| 12 | NY Giants | 10 | 38 | -28 | -5.29 | 1.00 | 2.30 | -1.99 |
| 13 | Minnesota | 23 | 14 | 9 | 3.00 | -1.00 | 1.39 | 3.39 |
| 14 | Detroit | 27 | 20 | 7 | 2.65 | -1.00 | -2.02 | -0.37 |
| 15 | Chicago | 21 | 13 | 8 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 2.47 | 6.30 |
| 16 | Tennessee | 55 | 7 | 48 | 6.93 | -1.00 | -2.97 | 2.96 |
| 17 | Minnesota | 34 | 37 | -3 | -1.73 | 1.00 | 1.39 | 0.66 |
| 18 | Minnesota | 24 | 10 | 14 | 3.74 | -1.00 | 1.39 | 4.13 |
| Tot Green Bay | average 5.41 | 1.77 | ||||||
| WK | Houston Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Miami | 30 | 10 | 20 | 4.47 | -1.00 | -1.35 | 2.13 |
| 2 | Jacksonville | 27 | 7 | 20 | 4.47 | 1.00 | -3.44 | 2.04 |
| 3 | Denver | 31 | 25 | 6 | 2.45 | 1.00 | 3.46 | 6.91 |
| 4 | Tennessee | 38 | 14 | 24 | 4.90 | -1.00 | -2.97 | 0.93 |
| 5 | NY Jets | 23 | 17 | 6 | 2.45 | 1.00 | -2.42 | 1.03 |
| 6 | Green Bay | 24 | 42 | -18 | -4.24 | -1.00 | 2.46 | -2.78 |
| 7 | Baltimore | 43 | 13 | 30 | 5.48 | -1.00 | 1.84 | 6.31 |
| 9 | Buffalo | 21 | 9 | 12 | 3.46 | -1.00 | -2.38 | 0.08 |
| 10 | Chicago | 13 | 6 | 7 | 2.65 | 1.00 | 2.47 | 6.12 |
| 11 | Jacksonville (OT) | 43 | 37 | 6 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -3.44 | -3.44 |
| 12 | Detroit (OT) | 34 | 31 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -2.02 | -0.02 |
| 13 | Tennessee | 24 | 10 | 14 | 3.74 | 1.00 | -2.97 | 1.77 |
| 14 | New England | 14 | 42 | -28 | -5.29 | 1.00 | 3.76 | -0.53 |
| 15 | Indianapolis | 29 | 17 | 12 | 3.46 | -1.00 | -1.37 | 1.09 |
| 16 | Minnesota | 6 | 23 | -17 | -4.12 | -1.00 | 1.39 | -3.73 |
| 17 | Indianapolis | 16 | 28 | -12 | -3.46 | 1.00 | -1.37 | -3.83 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 19 | 13 | 6 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Tot Houston | streak -1.44 | 0.95 | ||||||
| WK | NE Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Tennessee | 34 | 13 | 21 | 4.58 | 1.00 | -2.97 | 2.61 |
| 2 | Arizona | 18 | 20 | -2 | -1.41 | -1.00 | -2.59 | -5.00 |
| 3 | Baltimore | 30 | 31 | -1 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 52 | 28 | 24 | 4.90 | 1.00 | -2.38 | 3.51 |
| 5 | Denver | 31 | 21 | 10 | 3.16 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 5.63 |
| 6 | Seattle | 23 | 24 | -1 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| 7 | NY Jets (OT) | 29 | 26 | 3 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -2.42 | -2.42 |
| 8 | St. Louis | 45 | 7 | 38 | 6.16 | 1.00 | -1.75 | 5.41 |
| 10 | Buffalo | 37 | 31 | 6 | 2.45 | -1.00 | -2.38 | -0.94 |
| 11 | Indianapolis | 59 | 24 | 35 | 5.92 | -1.00 | -1.37 | 3.55 |
| 12 | NY Jets | 49 | 19 | 30 | 5.48 | 1.00 | -2.42 | 4.05 |
| 13 | Miami | 23 | 16 | 7 | 2.65 | 1.00 | -1.35 | 2.30 |
| 14 | Houston | 42 | 14 | 28 | 5.29 | -1.00 | 2.30 | 6.60 |
| 15 | San Francisco | 34 | 41 | -7 | -2.65 | -1.00 | 2.78 | -0.86 |
| 16 | Jacksonville | 23 | 16 | 7 | 2.65 | 1.00 | -3.44 | 0.21 |
| 17 | Miami | 28 | 0 | 28 | 5.29 | -1.00 | -1.35 | 2.95 |
| Tot NE | streak 2.85 | 2.04 | ||||||
| WK | SF Season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Green Bay | 30 | 22 | 8 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 2.46 | 6.29 |
| 2 | Detroit | 27 | 19 | 8 | 2.83 | -1.00 | -2.02 | -0.19 |
| 3 | Minnesota | 13 | 24 | -11 | -3.32 | 1.00 | 1.39 | -0.92 |
| 4 | NY Jets | 34 | 0 | 34 | 5.83 | 1.00 | -2.42 | 4.41 |
| 5 | Buffalo | 45 | 3 | 42 | 6.48 | -1.00 | -2.38 | 3.10 |
| 6 | NY Giants | 3 | 26 | -23 | -4.80 | -1.00 | 2.30 | -3.49 |
| 7 | Seattle | 13 | 6 | 7 | 2.65 | -1.00 | 3.23 | 4.88 |
| 8 | Arizona | 24 | 3 | 21 | 4.58 | 1.00 | -2.59 | 3.00 |
| 10 | St. Louis (OT) | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0.00 | -1.00 | -1.75 | -2.75 |
| 11 | Chicago | 32 | 7 | 25 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 2.47 | 6.47 |
| 12 | New Orleans | 31 | 21 | 10 | 3.16 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 4.82 |
| 13 | St. Louis (OT) | 13 | 16 | -3 | -1.00 | 1.00 | -1.75 | -1.75 |
| 14 | Miami | 27 | 13 | 14 | 3.74 | -1.00 | -1.35 | 1.40 |
| 15 | New England | 41 | 34 | 7 | 2.65 | 1.00 | 3.76 | 7.40 |
| 16 | Seattle | 13 | 42 | -29 | -5.39 | 1.00 | 3.23 | -1.15 |
| 17 | Arizona | 27 | 13 | 14 | 3.74 | -1.00 | -2.59 | 0.16 |
| Tot SF | streak 1.94 | 1.98 | ||||||
| WK | Seattle season | Pts | Opp | Margin | sqrt margin | Home | Opp Rating | Total |
| 1 | Arizona | 16 | 20 | -4 | -2.00 | 1.00 | -2.59 | -3.59 |
| 2 | Dallas | 27 | 7 | 20 | 4.47 | -1.00 | -1.22 | 2.25 |
| 3 | Green Bay | 14 | 12 | 2 | 1.41 | -1.00 | 2.46 | 2.88 |
| 4 | St. Louis | 13 | 19 | -6 | -2.45 | 1.00 | -1.75 | -3.20 |
| 5 | Carolina | 16 | 12 | 4 | 2.00 | 1.00 | -0.61 | 2.39 |
| 6 | New England | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1.00 | -1.00 | 3.76 | 3.76 |
| 7 | San Francisco | 6 | 13 | -7 | -2.65 | 1.00 | 2.78 | 1.14 |
| 8 | Detroit | 24 | 28 | -4 | -2.00 | 1.00 | -2.02 | -3.02 |
| 9 | Minnesota | 30 | 20 | 10 | 3.16 | -1.00 | 1.39 | 3.55 |
| 10 | NY Jets | 28 | 7 | 21 | 4.58 | -1.00 | -2.42 | 1.16 |
| 12 | Miami | 21 | 24 | -3 | -1.73 | 1.00 | -1.35 | -2.08 |
| 13 | Chicago (OT) | 23 | 17 | 6 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.47 | 4.47 |
| 14 | Arizona | 58 | 0 | 58 | 7.62 | -1.00 | -2.59 | 4.03 |
| 15 | Buffalo | 50 | 17 | 33 | 5.74 | 1.00 | -2.38 | 4.36 |
| 16 | San Francisco | 42 | 13 | 29 | 5.39 | -1.00 | 2.78 | 7.17 |
| 17 | St. Louis | 20 | 13 | 7 | 2.65 | -1.00 | -1.75 | -0.10 |
| 18 | Washington | 24 | 14 | 10 | 3.16 | 1.00 | 1.73 | 5.89 |
| Tot Seattle | streak 6.33 | 1.83 |
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