Florida Democrat Consultant: Making Democrats Competitive in Sunshine State May Take 25 Years

It may take 25 years for Democrats to be competitive in Florida once again, one Florida Democrat consultant said, concluding that the solution is “slow, long-term and sucks.”

It is no mystery that Republicans have taken over Florida as a whole, essentially removing Florida’s historic swing state status from the list in the last presidential election. This is the same state that swung for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, only to flip for Trump in the three consecutive presidential elections.

And the margins only continued to grow, as Trump won Florida by 1.2 percent in 2016, 3.3 percent in 2020, and 13.1 percent in 2024. Stunningly, Florida Republicans did not even have a voter registration advantage in the Sunshine State until November 2021, when Gov. Ron DeSantis first announced the historic achievement. From then on, the growth — thought by some to boom due to Florida’s free status in a world of ongoing draconian coronavirus mandates — has exploded for Republicans, as they now surpass Democrats in terms of voter registration by well over one million voters.

Couple that with the stark reality that traditionally blue counties such as Miami-Dade tipped red for Republicans and Trump, and Democrats are sweating.

A piece from Politico titled “Democrats have a Florida problem” walks through some concerns Democrats have as they face an uphill battle to regain any kind of influence in the Sunshine State in future elections.

“If national Democrats ignore the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own obituary, party strategists in the state say,” Politico reported, citing Democrat strategist Steve Schale, who emphasized that Democrats must invest in Florida as well as surrounding states if they realistically want to win in the future.

“If you want to elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we are losing,” he said.

The report also cited “longtime Florida Democratic consultant Beth Matuga,” who warned it could take more than two decades — 25 years — for Democrats to crawl their way back.

“Everybody wants a fast, easy solution that makes everyone feel good,” Matuga stated. “But the actual solution is slow, long-term and sucks.”

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It gets worse, per Politico [emphasis added]:

Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell has been warning national donors for more than two years that without significant outside investment then the state would “continue to sink into the abyss.” Florida party activist and filmmaker Billy Corben spectacularly left the Democratic Party and compared the state Democratic party to the Titanic. One Florida Democrat simply texted POLITICO the coffin emoji when asked what the state party could do next.

…

“I don’t think this is a problem that unfortunately Florida Democrats can fix on their own,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic pollster who worked on Obama’s successful campaigns in Florida, and frequently dismissed claims that the state was in play for Democrats in 2024. “It will require the national party and national donors to look hard in the mirror and say, ‘We cannot afford as a party to sacrifice Florida.’”

The report mentioned Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who also admitted that Democrats focused too heavily on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all of which they lost — while shirking Florida and other southern states, which they believe Democrats need to make competitive again.

Jasmine Burney-Clark, who worked as the director for the Harris campaign in Florida, also admitted that there are issues among the party leaders, who “underestimated the fact that on election night the rest of the nation would look like Florida.”