Final Pre-Election Poll: One-Quarter Have Low Confidence Election Will Be Fair; Plurality Say Trump Will Win

A plurality of likely voters believe former President Donald Trump will win the presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris, but one-quarter have low confidence that the election will be conducted fairly, according to a survey from the Economist/YouGov.

The survey — the final weekly survey before the 2024 presidential election — asked respondents, “Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think will win the presidential election?”

A plurality, 38 percent, said they believe Trump will win, followed by 35 percent who believe Harris will win. Another 26 percent remain unsure. Republicans are slightly more confident that Trump will win than Democrats are in Harris — 78 percent to the Democrats’ 74 percent. A plurality of independents are sure — 41 percent — but Trump still has the edge over Harris, as 35 percent believe he will win, compared to 24 percent who believe Harris will emerge as the victor.

The survey also asked respondents, “How much confidence do you have that the 2024 presidential election will be held fairly?”

Nearly one-quarter have relatively low confidence as ten percent said they have “none at all” and 13 percent said they have “only a little” confidence.

Twenty-eight percent overall said they have “a great deal” of confidence, and another 16 percent said they have “quite a bit.” Another quarter said they have “a moderate amount” of confidence.

Notably, Democrats are far more confident than Republicans, as 50 percent have a “great deal” of confidence the election will be fair, compared to 12 percent of Republicans who feel the same. Just 20 percent of independents agreed on having a “great deal” of confidence the election will be held fairly.

The survey was taken October 26-29, 2024, among 1,587 U.S. adult citizens.

While the Republican National Committee (RNC) launched a comprehensive election integrity program earlier this year, America received another victory on Wednesday after the U.S. Supreme Court ordered that federal law allows Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) to stop noncitizen voting by removing noncitizens from Virginia voter rolls.