Future Forward, a pro-Harris group, acknowledged that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 51 percent chance of losing the presidential election, according to internal documents obtained by the Washington Post.
The forecast, updated from a previous October 24 prediction that contended Harris had a 63 percent chance of losing, is predicated on the assumption that late-breaking undecided voters will favor Harris, a tact that directly contradicts the Trump campaign.
“It’s helpful, from experience, to be closing a Presidential campaign with late deciding voters breaking by double digits to you and the remaining undecideds looking more friendly to you than your opponent,” Harris senior adviser David Plouffe told reporters on Friday without citing any evidence.
Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita slammed Plouffe’s seemingly unfounded assumption. Team Trump has maintained for months that its data shows late-breaking undecided voters will favor the former president.
The Post, nevertheless, partially based its reporting on Plouffe’s claims and highlighted Future Forward’s latest forecast:
“Win probability now stands at 37%, down from 47% last week, and 54% the week before,” according to the Oct. 24 memo about the odds of Harris defeating Trump. The Oct. 30 memo reiterated a 37 percent chance of Harris winning, despite some polling upticks in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. A person familiar with the Nov. 2 Future Forward analysis, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said the Harris win probability is now back up at 49 percent.
The Oct. 30 memo noted that the “win probability” statistic had limited value because “there is still significant uncertainty around” the meaning of early-vote data, given uncertain shifts in voting patterns since 2020. The Oct. 10 analysis made a separate finding about surprises in new additions to the voter rolls.
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The Harris campaign leadership has publicly argued over the last week that the race dynamics have improved for them, amid backlash to offensive comments at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally.
The positive messaging from team Harris began Monday with anonymous campaign officials trying to reframe the race in a positive light by leaking a “cautiously optimistic” internal assessment to the New York Times.
The spin was a drastic change from what the Harris campaign has previously signaled: that it was an underdog in a deadlocked race.
National and swing state polling suggests Harris and Trump are virtually tied. Early voter data, which is more valuable than polling at this point in the race, indicates a stronger position for Trump, although it is unclear if the data will continue to trend in the right direction.
“This is based on three sources, two Republicans, one Democrat, all of whom know the state quite well, and all of whom told me today the same version of they would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin,” Halperin said.
“The focus has been on Pennsylvania,” Halperin continued. “[Harris] may well win Pennsylvania and win the election, but she could win Pennsylvania and lose the election because she doesn’t win Wisconsin. Watch Wisconsin.”
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.