The Republican brand is benefitting from a late surge on the generic congressional ballot. The GOP had been behind all summer, sometimes by as much as two points. Ten days ago, however, the Republican Party began to climb in the RealClearPolitics average poll of generic ballot polls. Today, the GOP leads by nearly a full point, 47.6 to 46.7 percent.
This is no fluke, meaning it is not based on one outlier poll that can skew the entire field. Of the seven most recent polls, Republicans have led in five and two are tied. That shows real movement in the closing days of the campaign.
The generic congressional ballot asks voters which party they would prefer in Congress. Although this is not always the case (see the red wave that wasn’t in 2022), the result of this poll generally conforms to which political party ends up winning the U.S. House of Representatives and doing well overall in that year’s election.
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Early in this campaign season, it was widely believed Democrats would regain control of the House. Today, Republicans are favored (by a slimmer than slim margin) to hold the House.
There is little question the GOP will take control of the U.S. Senate with at least 52 seats. As far as the race for the presidency, that race is as close as I’ve ever seen with Trump ahead by only a smidge.
If Trump wins the White House (I stress “if”) and Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate (as expected), this will be a huge help in Trump confirming judges, including to the Supreme Court. If Democrats control the House while Trump is president, they can block his legislative proposals and bedevil him with fraudulent investigations.
The best case scenario, obviously, is Republican control of both chambers with Trump in the White House. Then things can get done—like a big, beautiful wall.
Some context…
In 2016, when the GOP won the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the House, the RCP average on the generic ballot favored Democrats by 0.6 points.
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In 2014, which was one of the best mid-term elections for the GOP in recent history, the RCP average of the generic ballot had Republicans up by 2.4 points.
In 2010, a fabulous mid-term year for the GOP, the generic ballot had Republicans up 9.4 points.
If you can believe it, we only have four days and change to go to Election Day. Soon all questions will be answered—or no questions will be answered as the election is contested and litigated straight through the holidays. In which case, I will volunteer for a lobotomy and gay-marry my TV.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.