More believe former President Donald Trump will win the presidential election than Vice President Kamala Harris, regardless of personal preference, while one quarter are unsure who will claim victory, this week’s survey from the Economist/YouGov found.
The survey asked respondents to put their personal vote aside and reveal who they actually think will win.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden, on October 27, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
“Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think will win the presidential election?” the survey asked.
Overall, a plurality, 39 percent, said they believe Trump will win the election, their personal preference aside. Another 36 percent said they believe Harris will win, and one quarter across the board, 25 percent exactly, are “not sure” who will win.
Men are more confident in Trump than Harris by a ten-point margin, while women are more confident Harris will win by a six-point margin. Trump supporters are also more confident than Harris supporters, as 77 percent of Trump voters believe Trump will win, compared to 70 percent of Harris voters who say the same.
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Among registered voters, there is great uncertainty, as 38 percent said they believe Trump will win, and 38 percent said they believe Harris will win.
However, independents are also more confident in Trump than Harris, as 34 percent believe he will win compared to 27 percent who said the same for the vice president. However, a plurality, 39 percent, are not sure.
The survey was taken October 19-22, among 1,615 U.S. adult citizens. It comes as Democrats worry over Harris losing ground in key battleground states.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s 47th annual Leadership Conference on September 18, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)
As Breitbart News detailed:
With preliminary early voting trends on Tuesday suggesting that Republicans are outperforming Democrats in key swing states, the Harris campaign will likely hit the panic button in the coming days with ramped-up rhetoric meant to drive turnout. Both Harris and Barack Obama claimed Tuesday that former President Donald Trump is unhinged and incompetent “with no guardrails.”“Everyone keeps saying, ‘It’s close.’ Yes, it’s close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that,” a Democrat strategist told the Hill’s Amie Parnes. “Could we still win? Maybe. Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No.”
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As of Monday, Trump had the edge in every single battleground state, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
At the time of this writing, the margins were as follows:
Michigan: +0.1
Nevada: +0.7
Pennsylvania: +0.5
Wisconsin: +0.3
Arizona: +1.5
Georgia: +2.3
North Carolina: +0.8