Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, a state considered safely in her column a week ago.
“Amid signs that former President Donald Trump is slowly gaining momentum in the race for the White House,” writes the New Hampshire Journal, “a new New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll released Sunday night finds he’s leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the Granite State.”
“Trump’s slim 50.2 to 49.8 percent lead is insignificant, well within the margin of error.”
This survey of 622 registered voters was taken between October 24-26 and also shows Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Democrat Joyce Craig in the race for the governor’s mansion, 52 to 48 percent.
The generic ballot shows Democrats with a slim preference of just 50.6 to 49.4 percent.
One issue that appears to be galvanizing New Hampshire voters is the madness of allowing biological men to participate in women’s sports. The state recently passed a law protecting women and girls from these godforsaken cheaters. The poll asked New Hampshire voters if they were more or less likely to vote for someone who supports allowing men to compete against girls. Only 15 percent said more likely, while 54 percent said it was less likely.
The New Hampshire Journal’s Michael Graham appeared on Mark Halperin’s online show, The Morning Meeting, on Monday and said that prior to publishing the poll results, he had the pollster redo a hundred of the 622 samples just to be sure the poll result turned out the same. It did.
Last week, a poll showed Trump only down three in New Hampshire, 50 to 47 percent.
Along with expanding the battlefield in New Hampshire, a very confident Trump campaign is looking at holding events and/or moving resources into Virginia, New Mexico, and Minnesota.
The last Republican to win New Hampshire was George W. Bush in 2000. In 2016, Trump barely lost the state by about a third of a point.
Bush was also the last Republican to win New Mexico in 2004. Currently, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of New Mexico polls has Trump down by 7.7 points.
Bush was the last Republican to win Virginia, again in 2004. Currently, the RCP average poll of Virginia polls has Trump down by 6.4 points.
Richard Nixon was the last Republican to win Minnesota in 1972. Currently, the RCP average poll of Minnesota polls has Trump down by 4.7 points.
Trump has already announced rallies in Virginia and New Mexico. Even though his chances currently look better in New Hampshire, he might stay out to avoid ginning up the Democrat base against himself and Ayotte.
Kamala Harris visited New Hampshire in early September while claiming she wasn’t worried about the state. Joe Biden made a campaign stop in New Hampshire on behalf of Harris about ten days ago. He also insisted it had nothing to do with any concerns about losing the state.
Regardless, this is more proof the numbers are moving Trump’s way, and a visit to New Mexico and Virginia helps to demoralize Democrats and the Harris campaign.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.