No Republican has won Nevada since 2004, but today, and for the first time since the Silver State instituted early voting, Republicans are ahead — way ahead.
According to the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston, Republicans enjoy a statewide lead of around 26,000 votes.
In just one day, Thursday, that lead jumped +9,000. That doesn’t mean 9,000 Republicans voted Thursday. It means that after the Republican and Democrat ballots were counted, Republicans had a 9,000 vote lead in who voted Thursday.
These are incredible numbers.
Granted, we don’t know that all those Republican voters chose Trump. We also don’t know if all the Democrat voters chose Harris. And we really don’t know who Independents will choose.
But.
Nothing like this has ever happened in Nevada before, and after nearly two weeks of early voting by mail and in-person, people like me expected the Republican burst of enthusiasm to fade by now and for Democrats to start catching up.
That’s not happening.
In fact, the opposite happened on Thursday.
In one day, this late in the early voting process, Republicans boosted their lead from 16,398 votes to around 26,000.
More important is the collapse (so far) of the Democrat Party’s Nevada firewall.
Las Vegas is located in Clark County. This is the most populous county in the state and where Democrats have always been able to count on the late Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) vaunted machine to build up an early vote firewall for Democrats. In the past, this firewall has made it impossible for the rest of the state — which is mostly rural and Republican — to overcome that lead on Election Day.
During previous election cycles, at this same point in the early voting, the Clark County Democrat firewall has, per Ralston, sat at 40,000 or more votes. As of yesterday, the Clark County firewalls has Democrats ahead by only 6,717 votes. That number does not include the 4,334 votes Republicans gained in Clark County on Thursday.
The usual caveats apply, but they do not apply as much as they did on Monday when my colleague, Matt Boyle, covered the Nevada early vote…
Democrats could still swamp the early vote next week. Republicans might have shot their load in the early vote and then lose to Democrats in the Election Day turnout. One big mystery is how all the Independents will vote. They make up about 25 percent of the early vote so far.
What I will say is this… Enthusiasm is obviously with Trump voters, and the more votes the GOP banks, the more Trump’s turnout operation can focus on those who haven’t voted or don’t regularly vote.
Oh, and of the seven swing states, Nevada was supposed to be Trump’s toughest nut to crack.
Finally, there is a somewhat close U.S. Senate race in Nevada. This can only help Republican challenger Sam Brown against Democrat Jacky Rosen. In the Nevada House races, Ralston writes:
I have some real news: The early returns are not good for Democratic Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford. Both were considered near-locks because of weak opponents and national GOP not investing. But both could be in tighter races than everyone thought. Maybe
…
[T]he Rs have more ballots — 900 in CD3 and 250 in CD4. This could change as the turnout becomes more substantial, and the indies go for the incumbents. But Lee is trailing in a district Trump almost won in 2020, and Horsford has enough rural counties that his vote may be skewed against him now.
With the polls so close and so many unknowns, let’s just say I’d rather be Trump than Harris right now.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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