The latest polling from the Senate Opportunity Fund (SOF) is all bad news for Democrats. First off, former President Trump is leading in the swing states of Nevada and Wisconsin. Secondly, the U.S. Senate races in Nevada, Wisconsin, AND Ohio appear to be slipping away from Democrats.
Currently, Democrats hold all three of those U.S. Senate seats, and a month ago no one really thought the Republican challengers had much of a chance. There was some hope in the increasingly red state of Ohio, but almost none in Wisconsin and Nevada.
Thanks to almost certain turnovers in Montana and West Virginia, the GOP felt comfortable about holding the U.S. Senate, but only by one vote.
Slowly but surely, that’s all changed.
In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of U.S. Senate polls, in Ohio, Republican challenger Bernie Moreno is down only a single point behind incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, 46.3 to 47.3 percent. This new poll has Moreno leading by two, 49 to 47 percent.
In the RCP average poll of Wisconsin polls, incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin only has a 0.8 point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, 48 to 47.2 percent. This new poll has Hovde leading by one, 49 to 48 percent.
In the RCP average poll of Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen tops Republican challenger Sam Brown by 4.9 points, 48.2 to 43.3 percent. This new poll has the race all tied up at 48 percent, and the early voting in the Silver State is looking better and better for the GOP.
Th SOF poll surveyed 600 likely voters in each of the three states between October 19-22, and shows Trump leading Kamala Harris in all three.
In Ohio, Trump leads Harris by eight, 52 to 44 percent. In Wisconsin, he’s up by a single point, 48 to 47 percent. In Nevada he leads by three, 50 to 47 percent.
In these final days, there is just no question that everything is inching towards Trump and the GOP. Trends matter, especially at this point in the race when you want to peak. Poll averages matter, especially at RCP, which is the most accurate out there.
But.
Maybe the polls are undercounting Trump voters again.
Maybe the polls are undercounting Democrats on the abortion issue.
We won’t know until Election Day. But I do know the Harris campaign is getting dark and ugly like losing campaigns tend to do. I know the Trump campaign is acting like a winning campaign. I know the early vote is scaring Democrats. I know momentum matters most at this stage. And I know the leaks blaming a potential loss are all coming from Team Harris.
Let me just say I’d rather be Trump than Harris right now.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.