In a national poll from NY Times/Sienna released Friday, Donald Trump has surged to a one-point lead over Kamala Harris, 47 to 46 percent.

A little over two weeks ago, this same pollster showed the former president losing to Harris by three points, 44 to 47 percent.

That represents a four-point swing in one of the most trusted polls out there.

That particular result is when third-party candidates are included in the survey.

In a head-to-head race with no third-party candidates, this same poll shows the national race tied, 48 to 48 percent.

In the previous head-to-head poll, Trump was again down three points, 46 to 49 percent. So again we have a three-point swing in Trump’s direction.

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This is the final national poll of the 2024 election season from NY Times/Sienna. In 2020, this same pollster’s final national poll said Joe Biden would win by nine points. We are told the final result was Biden winning by exactly half that, at 4.5 points.

Equally important is what has happened in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of national polls. As of right now, that all-important poll is tied at 48.5 to 48.5 percent. Six polls show Kamala with a slim lead. Six polls show Trump with a slim lead. One poll is tied.

Harris has led in the RCP average poll of national polls since August 5 with a consistent lead of two to three points. In a little over a week, she has lost that lead with a steady round of national polls showing Trump edging slightly ahead.

There is just no question where the momentum is. Trump enjoys a small but stubborn lead in all seven swing states. Additionally, the early voting in swing states like North Carolina and Nevada should give the GOP a sense of cautious optimism. Never before have Republicans led in the early vote at this point in any presidential race. At the very least those results do tell us where the enthusiasm is.

Also of note in the NY Times/Sienna poll is that Trump ties Harris on favorability, 48 to 48 percent. Looks like Kamala’s closing argument — Orange Hitler Won’t Let You Kill Your Baby — isn’t working.

Trump winning the national vote would send Democrats right over the edge. It will be a beautiful thing to witness these idiots burn down their own neighborhoods.

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The New York Times itself is attempting to grapple with the idea Trump could win the national popular vote, but only in a scenario where CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar pulls off an electoral college upset:

It goes without saying that this shows an extremely close race — and it’s not the only poll to do so. Over the last week or so, several high-quality polls have showed a tied race or even had Mr. Trump pulling ahead. A Wall Street Journal poll, for instance, found Mr. Trump up three points, while CNBC showed him two points ahead.

…

As a result, I wouldn’t completely write off a Harris win in the Electoral College even if Mr. Trump narrowly won the popular vote. I’m absolutely not saying it’s likely. It may be a bit too much to ask Ms. Harris to sweep each of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan if she’s losing so much ground elsewhere in the nation. It may seem especially challenging in these particular states, as the polls have erred here in recent cycles. One also wonders whether the Arab American and Muslim population in Michigan, angry over the war in Gaza, might just get Mr. Trump over the edge in this scenario.

The race is closer than close and polling accuracy (or a lack thereof) could result in all sorts of outcomes.

But there are a few things we know for sure…

Ten days and change to go.

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.