Poll Projects Narrow Passage of Florida Abortion Amendment

A new survey shows a proposed abortion amendment in Florida obtaining enough support to narrowly pass.

The survey was conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) and released on Monday, the Tallahassee Democrat reported. Support for the abortion amendment reached 60 percent, which is the requirement for any proposed constitutional amendment to pass in the state. Thirty-two percent are opposed to the measure and eight percent are undecided.

“Since campaigning has picked up against the amendment, support for abortion protection has dropped from 69 percent of likely voters back in July,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Now, just barely reaching the 60 percent it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day.”

If Florida voters pass the measure — called Amendment 4 — with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle. The abortion measure also essentially allows for abortions throughout pregnancy under certain conditions.

Amendment 4, bars the state from restricting abortion before viability, approximately 24 weeks, or later in pregnancy “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

It reads:

No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider. This amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion.

The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) has come out against the amendment, saying it “threatens women’s safety.” The AHCA warned that the measure’s vague language could lead to the overturning of at least 20 abortion-related laws, including parental consent, if it is passed. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has also spoken out against the abortion amendment and said it was “written in a way that’s intentionally designed to deceive voters.” 

Various polls within the past few months have shown the amendment narrowly failing or passing, often within the margin of error (see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here). A recent poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed the abortion measure with only 46 percent support — well below what is needed for passage. 

The most recent poll was conducted with 977 likely Florida voters across the state’s ten major media markets between Oct. 7-18. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points. 

READ MORE: These Ten States Have Abortion on the Ballot in November
Ballot measures are particularly effective as an offensive weapon because they are basically irreversible — they change a state constitution, take precedence over laws passed by state legislatures, and can only be overturned by another ballot measure or lengthy legal battles. The measures are typically propped up by left-wing organizations and affiliates with deep pockets — such as Planned Parenthood and the ACLU — out-of-state dark money groups, and billionaires with eugenicist leanings, oftentimes outspending pro-life organizations by double or triple.

Every single pro-abortion-related ballot measure since the fall of Roe has been successful. During the 2022 special elections, Kansans rejected a ballot measure that would have established that the state Constitution does not include a right to abortion. During the 2022 midterms, voters in California, Michigan, and Vermont codified abortion into their Constitutions. At the same time, voters in Montana rejected a ballot measure that would have given rights to babies born alive in botched abortions. Voters in Kentucky also rejected an amendment similar to the one in Kansas. Last November, Ohioans also voted to codify the supposed right to abortion in their state Constitution via Issue 1.

The New York Times pointed out that none of those abortion measures have topped 60 percent support in those states. The highest total support was in Kansas in 2022, at 58.97 percent support.

The battle over the proposed abortion amendment in Florida is particularly high-stakes: Florida is the only state in the southeastern region of the United States that has abortion on the ballot in November, and all states in this region limit abortion completely or at six weeks, save for North Carolina, which limits abortions at 12 weeks. If Florida voters pass the amendment, the state would arguably, once again, become an abortion destination state for the region.

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.