New Mexico Could Be ‘Dark Horse’ in 2024 Election

New Mexico could very well be the dark horse this election cycle as trends seem to be favorable for former President Donald Trump.

New Mexico has not largely been on the radar for Republicans as much as the main battleground states, but it actually could be in play for a number of reasons.

The release of the latest KA Consulting poll showed Trump trailing Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris by just three percentage points, garnering 46 percent to Harris’s 49 percent support. It should be noted that the three-point difference is within the survey’s +/- 4 percent margin of error, indicating a virtual tie.

Additionally, that survey showed inflation and the economy as the top issue — chosen by 47 percent — followed by 43 percent who said immigration and border security are top issues. Both of these issues are central to Trump’s campaign, and they happen to be his strong suits. It also coincides with the reality that New Mexico is a border state with a hefty Hispanic population, and Trump is performing historically well among Hispanic voters, as recent surveys show. A recent survey out of Florida, for instance, showed Trump leading Harris by double digits among Hispanic voters — 55 percent to Harris’s 41 percent .

Even a recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found Trump continuing to close the gap among this group of voters, with Harris seeing 54 percent support to Trump’s 40 percent. NBC News put it this way:

Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground with Latinos at a time when these consequential voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as top priorities.

This is significant as these surveys showed Trump getting just 19 percent of the Latino vote in 2016, bumping up to 27 percent in 2020.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to drop out of the race and back Trump should also help the former president in the state as he was polling eight percent support in New Mexico. Also, the nonprofit group Election Freedom Inc. is running what has been described as an “aggressive 7-figure ad campaign focused on significant policy failures” of Harris. 

Coinciding with all of that is also a recent Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll showing Harris up by just four in New Mexico:

Last week, the Albuquerque Journal reported a “strong turnout” in terms of early voting in the state. At the time, it reported, “Going into Tuesday, nearly 4.6% of registered Republicans had already voted in this year’s general election compared to about 4.2% of registered Democrats.”

New Mexico has not swung red in 20 years — since 2004. According to official results, Trump lost the state by 8.3 percent in 2016 and 10.8 percent in 2020. But things could very well change this year.

Early on, Trump previewed his plans to make a play for states like New Mexico, knowing they could very well be in reach.

“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump told Breitbart News.