A poll recently released by the New York Times and Siena College found that a ballot measure to enshrine the right to abortion into the Florida Constitution is falling short of the support needed for passage.

The measure, called Amendment 4, bars the state from restricting abortion before viability, approximately 24 weeks, or later in pregnancy “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”

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It reads:

No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider. This amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion.

If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle.

The poll, which was conducted between September 29 and October 6, found that 46 percent of 622 likely Florida voters say they plan to vote in favor of the amendment, while 38 percent plan to vote against it. Sixteen percent say they are undecided or refused to answer; however, voters in this category are “twice as likely to support former President Donald J. Trump for president as they were to support Vice President Kamala Harris,” the Times reported of the poll. The margin of error is ±4.8 percentage points.

Ballot measures are particularly effective as an offensive weapon because they are basically irreversible — they change a state constitution, take precedence over laws passed by state legislatures, and can only be overturned by another ballot measure. The measures are typically propped up by left-wing organizations and affiliates with deep pockets — such as Planned Parenthood and the ACLU — out-of-state dark money groups, and billionaires with eugenicist leanings, oftentimes outspending pro-life organizations by double or triple.

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Every single pro-abortion-related ballot measure since the fall of Roe has been successful. During the 2022 special elections, Kansans rejected a ballot measure that would have established that the state Constitution does not include a right to abortion. During the 2022 midterms, voters in California, Michigan, and Vermont codified abortion into their Constitutions. At the same time, voters in Montana rejected a ballot measure that would have given rights to babies born alive in botched abortions. Voters in Kentucky also rejected an amendment similar to the one in Kansas. Last November, Ohioans also voted to codify the supposed right to abortion in their state Constitution via Issue 1.

But the Times points out that none of those abortion measures have topped 60 percent support in those states. The highest total support was in Kansas in 2022, at 58.97 percent support.

Various polls within the past few months have shown the amendment narrowly failing or passing, often within the margin of error (see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here).

The Republican Party of Florida has formally opposed the amendment, arguing that Amendment 4, along with Amendment 3 related to recreational marijuana, are too extreme for the state. Party Chairman Evan Power said:

Floridians are confident that their legislature has been passing laws that reflect the priorities of our state. Amendments 3 and 4 are unnecessary attempts by an increasingly shrinking minority who know the only way to win support for their radical agenda is to confuse and mislead the electorate.

In addition, the Republican Party of Florida supports the legislature’s desire to make school board races partisan, create a constitutional right to hunt and fish, and eliminate the taxpayer burden of public campaign financing.

The Florida Democrats are a dead carcass on the side of the road, but outside dark money groups are looking to promote their far-left ideology by attempting to confuse Florida voters. The Florida GOP stands ready to correct the record and defeat the radical left while enshrining in our Constitution more rights for our citizens.

The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) has also come out against the amendment, saying it “threatens women’s safety.” The AHCA warned that the measure’s vague language could lead to the overturning of at least 20 abortion-related laws, including parental consent, if it is passed.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has also spoken out against the abortion amendment and said it was “written in a way that’s intentionally designed to deceive voters.”

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.