Michigan Poll: Trump and Harris in Dead Heat, Trump Leads Among Women

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in the swing state of Michigan, and the former president has an edge over Harris among women, a recent survey from Michigan News Source/Mitchell Research and Communications found.

In a full field of candidates, Trump and Harris are tied with 47 percent support each. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each see one percent support.

However, in a head-to-head, Trump takes the lead over Harris by one percentage point, garnering 48 percent support to Harris’s 47 percent support.

Michigan News Source revealed that they attempted to find those “shy” Trump voters in this survey — those who will not admit they are voting for the former president over fears it is socially unacceptable. One way they get a better gauge on these voters is by asking respondents who they believe their friends are voting for. In this question, Trump led Harris by a ten-point margin.

As Michigan News Source reported:

Polling can reveal more intimate details than one might get in a conversation. That’s why pollsters phrase several questions in a variety of ways to draw out the best data. “In many circles, it is socially unacceptable to be a Trump voter,” Mitchell said. “Pollsters have been attempting to identify those ‘shy’ Trump voters that will not even tell a SurveyMonkey poll that they plan on voting for the former president.”

One of those ways is to ask voters who they think their friends and neighbors support. “When we asked that question on this survey, Trump was leading 45%-35%, a marked difference in the 8-way ballot question from what we saw earlier when we asked them for whom they were voting,” Mitchell said. “Part of the reason for the change is that 9% of the Democrats say that their friends and neighbors are voting for Trump compared to just 1% of Democrats when they are asked directly for whom they are voting.”

Voters were also asked who they think will win, regardless of personal preference. Trump led 41 percent to Harris’s 36 percent support — a lead outside the margin of error.

Another surprising finding: Trump edges out Harris among women by 1.4 percent:

Trump leads with women (48.7% – 47.3) while Harris leads with men (48% – 47.8%). When it comes to young voters, Trump leads by seven percent with 18–29 year-olds (50% – 43%) which is almost identical to his lead with the age group two weeks ago. The opposite is true in the Harris camp; among 30-44 year-olds, Harris led by 12% two weeks ago but is now trailing by 3% (48% – 45%).

The survey was taken October 14, among 589 likely voters. It has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

James Blair, who is running the political operations for the Trump campaign, explained during an interview on Breitbart News Saturday that Michigan seems to be trending in Trump’s direction.

“I think we might have flipped the average yesterday there in the state of Michigan. Yes, I think we did, but that is, you know, like, seven points ahead of where we were on the averages four years ago. I mean, huge gains,” he said.

As of Thursday, Trump leads Harris by an average of one percent in Michigan, per the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

Another major factor in Michigan, he noted, is the sheer number of uncommitted voters, as well as the abandon Harris movement.

WATCH — Kamala Debuts Another Accent in Erie, Pennsylvania:

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“So Michigan is ripe for the taking, potentially, again, more than half of the net new voter registrations in Michigan came in Trump counties. Since 2020, absentee mail ballot requests are down 24 percent. That’s a difference of 670,000 ballots,” he said.

“We’ve closed the gap by double digits compared to four years ago in terms of ballot requests, and we’ve closed the gap by double digit returns, and we’re also ahead of where we were in 2022 so, you know, Michigan has persistently, you know, been sort of perceived as the toughest state for us, and that’s got to hit Kamala pretty hard, because virtually every poll has us up there for the last two weeks, and all of the trajectory is clear in the same direction,” Blair added.