Nolte: Polls Show Trump Leading in Wisconsin and Michigan

The two latest polls out of the crucial swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan show former President Donald Trump with a slim lead.

An AARP poll of 1,382 likely Michigan voters taken between October 2-8 found the race tied at 46 percent when third-party candidates are included. In a head-to-head race, Trump earned 49 percent support while sitting Vice President Kamala Harris sits at 48 percent.

WATCH — Watch: Female Wisconsin Trump Supporters Think Harris Is an Idiot:

Although Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his third-party campaign, Democrats in Michigan are up to their usual dirty tricks by refusing to remove him from the ballot. In this poll, Kennedy, who endorsed Trump, earned three percent support on the full ballot.

This is also one of the rare polls of late that shows Harris improving her standing a bit. Most polls show her losing ground, but back in August, Trump led 45 to 43 percent. Of course that was two months ago when Harris was still surging with all that “joy.” Most polling shows she took the lead in Michigan in September (AARP did not poll that month) and is now losing that lead. Of the eight most recent polls out of Michigan, Kamala has only led in one. Trump has led in six. There is one tie. In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of Michigan polls, Trump is up by less than one point or 0.9 points.

WATCH — RFK Jr. Tells Michigan Crowd: Don’t Vote for Me, Vote for Donald J. Trump:

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The newest poll out of Wisconsin shows Trump again leading Harris by a single point, 50 to 49 percent. Patriot Polling surveyed 803 registered voters on October 14. This is in line with other polling out of Wisconsin where three polls are tied and Trump narrowly leads by a point or two. Harris hasn’t registered a lead in the Dairy State since September. The RCP average gives her a slim lead of less than a half point, or 0.3 points.

Of the seven battleground states that will decide who becomes our next president, per the RCP average, Kamala only leads in Wisconsin, and that lead appears to be slowly slipping away. Trump currently holds slim but steady leads in Nevada (0.2 points), Arizona (1.1 points), Michigan (0.9 points), Pennsylvania (0.3 points), North Carolina (0.5 points), and Georgia (0.5 points).

If you are a Trump supporter, those are frighteningly slim leads, but I would also point out that with the exception of Nevada, those are consistent leads. Trump is benefitting from an outlier +6 poll in Nevada. Without that, Harris is the one with the stubborn lead.

There is no question that over the last ten days, the race has moved in Trump’s direction both nationally and in the swing states. The movement is tiny, barely noticeable, but it is real. Although we have a long way to go and a lot can happen over the next 20 days, as of this writing there is nothing on the horizon (a debate, convention, etc.) that could upset the trajectory of the race, and that is bad news for Word Salad Kammy.

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.