A Wall Street Journal poll released on Friday found that former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by one point nationwide. The swing states are “too close to call,” though Harris has a slight edge.
The Journal reported:
The survey of the most contested states finds Harris with slim leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia on ballots that include independent and third-party candidates where they will be offered as options. Trump has a narrow edge in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But no lead is greater than 2 percentage points, except for Trump’s 5-point advantage in Nevada, which like the others is within the poll’s margin of error.
Across the full set of 4,200 swing-state voters, Trump gets 46% support and Harris draws 45%. The survey finds that the race in every state—and therefore the presidential election—is too close to call. If Harris wins the states where she leads in the poll, she would win a narrow majority in the Electoral College.
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By 10 percentage points, more say Trump than Harris would be better at handling the economy—the issue that voters cite as most important to their choice of candidate. By 16 points, voters favor Trump for handling immigration and border security, the No. 2 issue of concern.
Harris’s path to victory, the Journal suggests, is in Sun Belt states like Arizona, where large numbers of liberal voters have moved from the Midwest and the Northeast, changing local politics (along with immigration from abroad).
Another notable aspect of the poll is that voters say the national economy is bad, but their local economies are good.
More voters also describe Trump as “extreme” (48%) than Harris (38%). The bad news for Harris is that President Joe Biden led northern industrial states by more than five points at this time in 2020; Harris is struggling there.
The Journal poll was followed by a separate NBC poll on Sunday that showed Trump with a similar one-point lead.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
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