Poll: Trump and Harris Tied in Blue Nevada

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are tied in blue Nevada, according to the latest Napolitan News Service survey, conducted by RMG Research.

The survey asked respondents, “If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump?”

With leaners included, the two are tied with 49 percent support each. Only two percent said they would not vote if those were the choices.

When leaners are excluded, Harris leads Trump by two percentage points — 49 percent to 47 percent. Even so, that is well within the survey’s +/- 3.5 percent margin of error.

“In a poll with a 3.5 percentage point margin of sampling error, that difference is not significant and the race is a tossup. But we wanted to be precise in our reporting of the results,” Napolitan News noted.

The survey was taken September 30 to October 3, 2024, among 782 likely voters.

This is significant, as Nevada has tipped blue since 2008, voting for former President Barack Obama twice, twice-failed Hillary Clinton in 2016, and President Joe Biden in 2020. However, the race was relatively tight in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, for example, Trump lost by just 2.4 percent. Stunningly, again in 2020, Trump lost by just 2.4 percent.

This poll coincides with a Noble Predictive Insights poll published late September, also showing a dead heat between Trump and Harris.

As Breitbart News detailed:

The poll, conducted from September 9-16, finds that Trump and Harris are locked at 47 percent among 692 likely voters when third-party candidates are included in the fray.

One percent backs Libertarian Chase Oliver, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein does not secure a percent of support, and three percent are undecided.

Trump leads Harris with both independents and Hispanic voters. Independents break for Trump over Harris by a 47 percent to 41 percent margin, while 49 percent of Hispanics prefer Trump and 44 percent support Harris.

If Trump were to win Nevada, that would put  sixmore electoral votes in his basket.