Former President Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 and we’re told he barely lost Pennsylvania in 2020. Nevertheless, compared to where his polling stood in that vital swing state during those two campaigns, he is way over-performing in the polling today.
According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll of Pennsylvania state polls, Trump leads sitting Vice President Kamala Harris by a mere 0.2 points.
That might not sound like much of a lead — and it’s not, but what’s useful is to look at the polling in Pennsylvania at this same time in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
According to the RCP average poll of Pennsylvania state polls on this day in 2016, Trump was losing the state to Hillary Clinton by 9.4 points. Trump would go on to win the state by 0.7 points.
Currently, by a margin of 9.6(!) points, Trump is polling better in Pennsylvania than he did eight years ago.
According to the RCP average poll of Pennsylvania state polls on this day in 2020, His Fraudulency Joe Biden was 7.1 points ahead of Trump. We’re told Biden went on to win the state by 1.2 points.
Currently, by a margin of 7.3(!) points, Trump is polling better in Pennsylvania than he did four years ago.
Against Hillary Clinton, Trump never once took the lead in the RCP Pennsylvania average. Same with Slow Joe Biden. Nevertheless, in the end, it was a squeaker both times. Against Kamala in the RCP average, however, Trump has led for more days than Harris has.
What’s even more interesting is that by the time Election Day arrived, the invaluable RCP average was pretty close to the final tally in both 2016 and 2020. RCP predicted Biden would win by 1.2 points in 2020, and we’re told he did win by 1.2 points. In 2016, the RCP average predicted Hillary would win by 1.9 points, and Trump went on to win by 0.7 points.
In other words…
The RCP average is imperfect but still pretty trustworthy.
So, if the RCP average says Trump has a slim lead today, he probably does. Everything I’m hearing is that the Harris camp is worried about Pennsylvania and the Trump camp feels good about it—especially where it’s trending.
What’s more, if past is prologue, look at the RCP Pennsylvania averages in 2016 and 2020… Trump closed the gap in the final few weeks because he is a fantastic closer.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.