Republican Bernie Moreno’s Ohio Senate Surge Washes Away Democrat Sherrod Brown’s Lead

Republican Senate nominee Bernie Moreno is tied with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio after eroding the incumbent Democrats’ once-substantial lead.

Moreno has fought through both a bruising primary and tens of millions in attack ads from Brown and Democrat groups in what has become the most expensive Senate race of the cycle.

An internal poll from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has Moreno tied with Brown at 46 percent, the Hill reported.

In April, that same poll had Moreno down seven points to Brown.

Republicans have rushed to support Moreno in the deepening red state, outspending Democratic groups by $41 million during September alone ($91 million to $50 million).

That spending has paid dividends. The NRSC polls show Brown’s approval and disapproval numbers are now dead even at 45 percent.

Those numbers were 49 to 36 percent in April, when Brown held his now-evaporated lead over Moreno.

Moreno’s trajectory is similar to that of Sen. JD Vance’s (R-OH), who emerged from another bruising primary behind his Democrat opponent but steadily gained support.

Vance ultimately defeated former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) by 6.5 points.

The polling and spending trends have encouraged Republicans.

“Brown is going to get massively outspent down the stretch, and the polling is already moving against him,” a Republican operative who has worked on races in Ohio told The Hill. “Ohio’s one of these annoying states where voters don’t tell you what they’re going to do until it’s late.”

Moreno has an advantage Vance did not have – Donald Trump’s name will be on the ballot. Trump won the state by eight points in 2016 and 2020 and is expected to carry the state again, driving supporters who might have sat out the 2022 midterms to the polls.

“After lighting up the airwaves with nearly $50 million dollars, Sherrod Brown is stuck at under 50% in every single poll,” Reagan McCarthy, a Moreno campaign spokesperson, told The Hill. “While Brown fundraises with Hollywood elites, Bernie is crisscrossing Ohio and earning every vote. Ohioans are tired of the economic turmoil, border invasion, and chaos on the world stage that [President Biden], Harris, and Brown have created in the last 3 and a half years, and we will send Brown packing on November 5th.”

Ohio is one of two red states Democrats must defend this cycle. In Montana, incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (R-MT) is seven points behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

And in West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) is retiring, surrendering the state to Republicans.

Republicans are running strong in swing states as well, buoyed by Trump’s support. They hope to flip seats from incumbents, notably in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, and capture open seats in Michigan and a handful of other states.

Bradley Jaye is a Capitol Hill Correspondent for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter at @BradleyAJaye.