Nolte: PA Polls Show Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Virtually Tied

We now have our umpteenth tied poll from the Pennsylvania presidential race, but we also have a poll showing the U.S. Senate race in a statistical tie.

Sentinel Action Fund, a conservative super PAC, polled 800 likely Pennsylvania voters between September 28 and 29 and found former President Trump and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 47 percent.

In that state’s U.S. Senate race, when leaners are counted, incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Bob Casey leads by only a single point over Republican challenger Dave McCormick, 45 to 44 percent.

This is now the ninth poll over the last month showing Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of Pennsylvania state polls, the race is perfectly tied at 48.2 to 48.2. I’ve never seen anything like it.

This particular poll is good news for Republican U.S. Senate challenger McCormick. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of Pennsylvania Senate polls, McCormick is down four points. No poll has ever shown him in the lead. The best he’s managed is a tie.

Thanks to almost certain party turnovers in West Virginia and Montana, the Republicans should gain control of the U.S. Senate next year. The question that remains is whether or not they can pad their lead by grabbing this seat in reddish Pennsylvania and another in bright-red Ohio.

Pennsylvania is also looking like the state that will decide the next president. Trump appears to have enough electoral votes in his column so that a pickup of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan will seal the deal. He only needs one. Harris needs to run the table on all three.

In 2016, Trump won all three. In 2020, we’re told he lost all three, but only by tiny margins.

According to the polling, Pennsylvania is Trump’s best chance at winning what would be a historic reelection and second-to-none political comeback.

All, however, will depend on the accuracy of the polling. If the 2024 polling is even half as off as it was in 2016 and 2020, Trump could win in a landslide. He might even win the popular vote. Of course, if the polling is half as bad as it was in 2022 when Democrats were underestimated, Kamala could win the landslide.

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.