New polling out of Florida shows a proposed abortion amendment falling short of the support needed for passage — but many voters are still unsure how they will vote.
The survey, reported on by Florida Politics and conducted by a Republican-led firm called Victory Insights, found that 49.7 percent of respondents support the abortion amendment, which falls short of the 60 percent support needed to pass. Another 29. 2 percent oppose the amendment, and 21.2 percent are undecided.
“It’s important to note that more than 1 in 5 voters remain undecided, providing ample opportunity for the amendment to pick up another (about) 10 percent support in order to reach the threshold,” senior pollster Ben Galbraith said in a polling memo obtained by the outlet.
Amendment 4 bars the state from restricting abortion before viability (approximately 24 weeks) or later in pregnancy “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
It reads:
No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider. This amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion.
If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle.
RELATED: Ten States Will Have Abortion on the Ballot in November
By political affiliation, 48 percent of Republicans polled say they plan to vote against the measure, while 29 percent are undecided, and 23 percent plan to vote in favor of it, the survey found.
Unaffiliated voters and Democrats show far more support for the measure. Nearly 6 in 10 (57 percent) of unaffiliated voters in the Sunshine State plan to vote for the measure, while 24 percent are undecided, and 19 percent plan to vote against it.
Seventy-six percent of Democrats plan to support the measure, while 12 percent are undecided, and 13 percent plan to vote against it, the survey found.
By age group, adults ages 18 to 49 are more supportive (55 percent) of the amendment than 50- to 64-year-olds (49 percent), and those 65 and up (45 percent).
Various polls within the past few months have shown the amendment narrowly failing or passing, often within the margin of error (see here, here, here, here, here, here, and here).
The Republican Party of Florida has formally opposed the amendment, arguing that Amendment 4, along with Amendment 3 related to recreational marijuana, are too extreme for the state. Party Chairman Evan Power said:
Floridians are confident that their legislature has been passing laws that reflect the priorities of our state. Amendments 3 and 4 are unnecessary attempts by an increasingly shrinking minority who know the only way to win support for their radical agenda is to confuse and mislead the electorate.
In addition, the Republican Party of Florida supports the legislature’s desire to make school board races partisan, create a constitutional right to hunt and fish, and eliminate the taxpayer burden of public campaign financing.
The Florida Democrats are a dead carcass on the side of the road, but outside dark money groups are looking to promote their far-left ideology by attempting to confuse Florida voters. The Florida GOP stands ready to correct the record and defeat the radical left while enshrining in our Constitution more rights for our citizens.
The Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) has also come out against the amendment, saying it “threatens women’s safety.” The AHCA warned that the measure’s vague language could lead to the overturning of at least 20 abortion-related laws, including parental consent, if it is passed.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has also spoken out against the abortion amendment and said it was “written in a way that’s intentionally designed to deceive voters.”
The poll was conducted Sept. 22-25, 2024, among 600 likely general election voters throughout Florida. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points.
Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.
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