This is the third week in a row that former President Trump has held a two-point national lead over sitting Vice President Kamala Harris in the Rasmussen Reports weekly poll.
Rasmussen surveyed 1,820 likely voters on September 19 and 22-25 and found 48 percent support for Trump and 46 percent support for Harris.
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“These findings are nearly unchanged since last week, when Trump held a 49% to 47% lead over Harris, which was the same as the survey published September 12,” writes the pollster.
The internals show — and this is a large sample size — that Trump leads Harris with Hispanics, 49 to 42 percent. The former president is also overperforming with black voters, 28 to 66 percent. That should be closer to 15 to 85 percent.
Trump enjoys a single-point advantage over voters aged 18-39, 46 to 45 percent. Among those aged 40 to 64, Trump leads by four points, 50 to 46 percent. Seniors aged 65 and over split evenly between the two candidates, 49 to 49 percent.
The reason the overall margin is not wider in favor of Trump is the gender gap. Trump leads men by only seven points in this poll, 44 to 51 percent. In other polling that gap is much wider. However, Harris only leads with women by three points, 49 to 46 percent. Again, we’ve seen a much wider gender gap with women in favor of Harris in other polls.
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In the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, Harris currently leads by two points, 49.1 to 47.1 percent. The three most recent polls, which include this Rasmussen poll, either show the race tied, Harris +1, or Trump +2.
On this same date in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump nationally by 2.3 points. Trump narrowly won this election.
On this same date in 2020, Joe Biden led Trump nationally by 6.9 points. We are told Trump narrowly lost this election.
Either way, Kamala is underperforming compared to Hillary and Old Joe. The question that remains is whether or not the pollsters are again undercounting Trump voters. But even if they are not, the electoral college race is closer today than I have ever seen it. It looks like the whole race will come down to Pennsylvania, and right now Pennsylvania is tied-tied-tied. Of the last seven Pennsylvania polls, five are tied. I have never seen anything like that.
Trump’s a good closer. He proved that in 2016 and 2020. Kamala’s an idiot, she proves that every time she opens her mouth, but … she has billions and billions of dollars in corporate media propaganda backing her.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.