Nolte: Another Poll Shows Pennsylvania Moving Trump’s Way

New polling shows Pennsylvania all tied up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. This is good news.

Bear with me here. I swear I’m not a rose-colored glasses guy when it comes to polling. What I do look at are the averages along with what we know about actual voting. So, based on what I see, this latest poll out of Pennsylvania that shows the presidential race tied up at 48 percent is a reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Pennsylvania will almost certainly decide who becomes the next president.

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Muhlenberg College polled 450 likely voters between September 16-19 and found both sitting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump sitting at 48 percent each.

Incredibly, over less than two weeks, this is the fourth poll to show Pennsylvania tied. Two other polls during this time show Trump up by +1 and +2.

So, why do I sound cautiously optimistic? Please click here. Look at all that blue. Look at how four polls in a row showed Harris up by +3 to +5. And then….

In six polls in a row, the six most recent polls, all that blue disappeared.

Secondly, we have an early look at how the mail-in requests look.

In 2020, we are told Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes. As of Monday, compared to 2020, Democrats have requested 360,101 fewer mail-in ballots than they did on this same day four years ago. Republicans are down 69,963. Nevertheless, Democrats are down a net -290,138.

On this same date in 2020, Democrats enjoyed a mail-in ballot advantage of 775,990. In the end, that advantage grew to one million. Today, that advantage sits at just 485,852.

Here’s more data…

In 2016, the RealClearPolitics average poll of polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 2.1 points. Trump outperformed the polling by almost three points and won the state.

But, in 2020, the RealClearPolitics average was dead on. We’re told Biden won the state by 1.2 points, which is exactly what the polling showed.

Again and again, I’ve said we’ll know more in a couple of weeks only to not know more. What I do know is that since the second assassination attempt, Trump has been much more disciplined on the campaign trail and social media. I also know that in poll after poll, Trump wins on the issues people care about most. The only thing holding him back from a blowout is that a lot of people find his personality unpresidential and obnoxious. If he can just show the discipline to behave somewhat presidential over the next six weeks, he can win this thing. That’s something I firmly believe. 

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.