Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is losing by seven points to Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, 50 to 43 percent.

What’s most interesting is that a little over five weeks ago in this very same poll, Tester led by five. That’s a 12-point swing against the Democrat since August 14.

The poll also found that, in the presidential race, former President Donald Trump leads sitting Vice President Kamala Harris by 21 points in Montana, 59 to 38 percent.

RMG research surveyed 491 likely voters in Montana.

In the RealClearPolitics average poll of Montana U.S. Senate polls, Sheehy has led in every poll since June and enjoys an average lead of 5.2 points, 50 to 44.8 percent.

In the 2024 battle for the U.S. Senate, Republicans are almost certain to win the chamber. The GOP will pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana, giving it a total of 51 seats. Another pick-up possibility is in Ohio, where Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a shaky 3.6-point lead (average) against GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Currently, Trump enjoys a nine-point lead (average) in Ohio, which could be the boost Moreno needs.

West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are all seen as safely red states, so it is only a matter of time before their U.S. Senate picks reflect that. Ohio might just require another cycle or two. Hopefully not.

The battle for the U.S. House is still up in the air. Democrats enjoy 196 safe seats. Republicans have 207 safe seats. That leaves 32 toss-ups with 218 seats required for a majority. The forecasters currently give the edge to Democrats, which means the GOP will lose the House. But, once again, like the presidential race, it’s so close that no one really knows.

Eventually, the country will start to make up its mind and we will see the race move one way or the other. That’s usually what happens. Let’s hope it does this time. This is still Trump’s race to lose. If he continues to show the discipline he’s displayed since this last assassination attempt and if Harris keeps dodging when it comes to interviews and specifics on her vision for the country, Trump has a real chance to make history with what will be remembered as the most impressive comeback in American political history.

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.