Poll Suggests Arizona Abortion Amendment Has Enough Support to Pass

A poll suggests that a proposed amendment to enshrine the right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution has enough support to pass.

A New York Times/Siena College found that 58 percent of likely voters plan to vote in favor of the abortion amendment, called Proposition 139. Just over a third (35 percent) plan to vote against the amendment, and seven percent of respondents are unsure or refused to answer.

“The amendment, which is one of several abortion-related ballot initiatives across the country this fall, is seen by Democrats as a potential opportunity to increase turnout, since abortion has come to be a motivating issue on the left,” the Times wrote of the poll, which also found former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the state, 50 percent to 45 percent.

RELATED: Ten States Will Have Abortion on the Ballot in November

A strong majority (60 percent) of respondents who say they are voting for Trump plan to vote against the abortion amendment, while 33 percent plan to support the measure. Democrats are much more united on the issue of abortion, with just nine percent of potential Harris voters saying they will vote against the abortion amendment, along with 11 percent of Democrats overall.

Among those who say they are voting for someone besides Harris or Trump, 45 percent plan to vote in favor of the measure, and 27 percent plan to vote against it, the survey found. 

The proposed amendment is being put forward by Arizona for Abortion Access — a coalition of groups including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Arizona, Affirm Sexual and Reproductive Health, Arizona List, Healthcare Rising Arizona, the National Association for the Repeal of Abortion Laws (NARAL) Arizona, and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona. 

The measure would amend the Arizona constitution to declare that “every individual has a fundamental right to abortion” and bar the state from doing anything that:

Denies, restricts, or interferes with that right before fetal viability unless justified by a compelling state interest that is achieved by the least restrictive means.

Denies, restricts, or interferes with an abortion after fetal viability that, in the good faith judgment of a treating health care professional, is necessary to protect the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant individual. 

Penalizes any individual or entity for aiding or assisting a pregnant individual in exercising that individual’s right to abortion as provided in this section. 

Abortion is currently restricted in Arizona after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which is when an unborn baby is believed to be capable of feeling pain.

The Arizona Supreme Court allowed a near-total abortion ban from 1864 to go into effect over the 15-week restriction in April. However, Democrat Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs quickly signed a bill repealing the law on May 2.

The abortion measure needs a simple majority to pass. Its passage would undo the state’s current 15-week abortion limit. 

The poll was conducted September 17-21, 2024, with 713 registered voters in Arizona and has a margin of error of ± 4.4 percent.

Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.