Former President Donald Trump surged ahead by five points in Arizona, maintained a four point lead in Georgia, and held steady in North Carolina, according to New York Times/Siena College presidential election polling on Monday.
Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — will decide the presidential election, political experts believe. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Kamala Harris’s path to obtain 270 electoral votes becomes almost impossible.
Arizona
Trump’s surged ten points in the Copper State since August to take a five point lead (50-45 percent) over Vice President Kamala Harris, who is struggling with Latino voters, the Times reported:
Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Ms. Harris, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided. And Mr. Trump is benefiting from ticket splitting there: While Ms. Harris is trailing, the poll shows that the Democratic candidate for Senate is ahead.
President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 with about 10,000 votes.
North Carolina
Trump is up two points in the Tar Heel state (49-47 percent), a four point swing and the same amount as he trailed in August. The race remains within the margin of error (4.2 percentage points), the Times found:
In North Carolina, which Mr. Trump won by under 75,000 votes in 2020, the former president has a slim lead over Ms. Harris, drawing 49 percent of the vote compared with 47 percent for Ms. Harris. (The poll was mostly conducted before reports that Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor there, had made disturbing posts in a pornography forum, which some Republicans fear could hurt Mr. Trump in the state.)
Georgia
Trump maintained a four point lead in the Peach State (45-49 percent), the same margin Trump held in August. Trump’s four point lead remains in the margin of error (4.6 percent).
Biden won Georgia in 2020 by about 11,000 votes.
About 15 percent of the electorate in the three swing states are undecided voters, the Times reported:
But in one sign of how these contests remain up for grabs, about 15 percent of the electorate in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina described themselves as undecided or not definitely decided, leaving open the possibility that they could still change their minds. This group of voters had leaned toward Ms. Harris in these states in August but now lean slightly more toward Mr. Trump.
While these three Sun Belt states have drawn a great deal of attention from both the Trump and Harris camps, North Carolina and Georgia are especially essential to the former president’s hopes of returning to the White House, analysts say. Ms. Harris could win even while losing all three of these states, though it would be difficult.
The polls sampled 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia, and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from September 17 – 21. The margin of error in each state is between four and five percentage points: Plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.