Former President Donald Trump’s edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in four critical swing states would translate to an electoral college victory if the presidential election were held today, according to an Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.
The poll, published Thursday, finds that Trump has the advantage over Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and North Carolina. They are in a dead heat in Nevada.
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Arizona:
- Trump: 49 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Someone else: 2
- Undecided: 1
Georgia:
- Trump: 50 percent
- Harris: 47 percent
- Someone else: 2 percent
- Undecided: 2 percent
Pennsylvania:
- Trump: 48 percent
- Harris: 47 percent
- Someone else: 1 percent
- Undecided: 4 percent
Wisconsin:
- Trump: 49 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Someone else: 1 percent
- Undecided: 2 percent
Michigan:
- Harris: 49 percent
- Trump: 47 percent
- Someone else: 1 percent
- Undecided: 3 percent
North Carolina:
- Harris: 49 percent
- Trump: 48 percent
- Someone else: 1 percent
- Undecided: 2 percent
Nevada
- Trump: 48 percent
- Harris: 48 percent
- Someone else: 2 percent
- Undecided: 2 percent
When the poll results are applied to the electoral map, Trump earns enough electoral votes to win the White House. Before considering the seven swing states, Trump is set to begin with 219 electoral votes based on the expected results of traditionally red-leaning states.
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Arizona has 11 electoral votes, Georgia has 16, Pennsylvania has 19, and Wisconsin has 10. If Trump’s edge in this poll came to fruition on election day, he would reach 275 electoral votes, spelling defeat for Harris. And he could even further widen the theoretical margin of victory if the election were today and Nevada fell his way, which would put him at 281 electoral votes. Before rounding, Trump holds a .7 percentage point lead in Nevada, at 48.4 percent to Harris’s 47.7 percent, per the Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.
The poll shows Trump winning the White House without North Carolina, which makes it all the more worrying for Democrats. Trump won North Carolina in the last two elections. He beat President Joe Biden by 1.3 percent in Tar Heel State in 2020, while he bested twice-failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percent in 2016.
The post-debate poll sampled between 868 and 1,000 likely voters in these states from September 15, the day Trump was targeted in a second assassination attempt, and September 18. The credibility intervals range from ± 3 percent to ± 3.3 percent, meaning all results fall within the credibility interval.