More proof that incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris is no longer peaking in the polls comes from a sizable McLaughlin & Associates survey that shows former President Trump with a two-point national lead, 49 to 47 percent.
McLaughlin & Associates polled 1,778 likely voters between August 29 and September 1 and found The Donald leading CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar 49 to 47 percent.
When third-party candidates are added to the ballot, Kamala Harris earns a single-point lead, 47 to 46 percent.
We also have a Big Data Poll of 3,047 likely voters, which shows the race tied at 50 percent:
Rasmussen also has Trump maintaining a single-point lead, 47 to 46, although that is down from a two-point lead last week.
What we do know is that Kamala’s momentum has stalled and likely peaked. Harris is losing ground at 538. Her average national lead of 3.7 points on August 23 is down to 3.1 points on Thursday.
The markets give Trump an edge.
Nate Silver gives Trump an edge.
Why, if Kamala is leading nationally and has a slight edge in the state polling, is the smart money on Trump?
A few reasons…
First, over the last two election cycles, polling has grossly underestimated Trump’s support.
Second, everyone saw in 2016 and 2020 how Trump closed the gap in the last few weeks of the campaign. He’s a great closer.
Finally, what is Kamala’s plan now that her stupid Brat Summer is over? She has no policy proposals. She refuses to answer questions or sit down for a job interview even with friendly interviewers. What’s her second act for the next six weeks? Continuing to hide and run on air? What’s her third act in the closing weeks to November?
Debates don’t normally matter much, but in a razor-thin race like this one, next week’s could. We know Kamala is not prepared. The best way to prepare for a debate is to sit down for adversarial media interviews. This prepares you for the fastballs and curveballs. It gets your brain oiled up to think on your feet. Most of all, it requires you to think through what you believe so you can defend it. We also know Kamala has been looking to squirm out of next week’s debate by whining about the rules right up until this week. She was obviously hoping the corporate media would run to her side and give her cover to drop out.
This is a woman who wilts under pressure and who wants her notes and an open mic. She doesn’t even want to stand. She wants a sit-down debate.
Trump just needs to be cool next week. Be normal. Be precise. Don’t ramble. Do not allow her to dig under his skin. For the past couple of weeks, he’s been running a very, very disciplined campaign, much more disciplined than we’ve ever before seen from him. Since Kamala cannot run for anything, she can only try to get Ugly Trump to appear at the debate, the petty and prickly Trump who went after Biden over golf scores at their debate.
If he doesn’t take the bait, he should be fine.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.