Vice President Kamala Harris continues to trail former President Donald Trump even after the Democratic National Convention (DNC), according to a Rasmussen Reports poll.
The poll, published on Thursday, finds that 48 percent of the 1,893 likely voter respondents back Trump, placing him two percentage points above Harris at 46 percent. Three percent of respondents are undecided.
Independents are breaking for Trump over Harris by an eight-point margin of 49 to 41 percent, while each candidate is backed by 82 percent of their party’s voters.
The margin of error (MOE) is ± three percentage points, and the poll was conducted on August 22, the last day of the DNC, and August 25-28.
Trump has steadily lost support in Rasmussen polls since Harris became the nominee, according to polling aggregator @IApolls2022 on X. On July 24, he led by seven points; on August 13, he had a four-point advantage; and on August 21, he was up three points when they registered at 49 percent and 46 percent.
However, Harris’s failure to take the lead from Trump or even gain a point in support in the latest poll conducted the day and days after her acceptance speech indicates sputtering momentum.
Candidates typically see a noticeable bump after their conventions, but Harris did not see one here.
The poll also follows a warning from longtime Democrat strategist James Carville about how Trump historically overperforms polls.
“The idea is to be good in November, and I tell Democrats, some caution here. First of all, most say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College,” Carville said. “So when you see a poll that says we two up, well, actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct.”
By Carville’s logic, two other polls released Thursday do not bode well for Harris.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted August 23-27 after the convention found Harris with a 49 percent to 48 percent edge over Trump in a head-to-head race with two percent undecided. A four-way race found Harris at 49 percent, Trump at 47 percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver tied at 1 percent.
The poll sampled 1,611 likely voters and has a margin of error of ± 2.4 percentage points.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted August 24-28 found that Harris has 48 percent support nationally, and Trump has 47 percent. She had a two-point lead in a larger field. The sample included 1,500 registered voters; the MOE is ± 2.5 percent.
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