Former President Donald Trump has regained his lead against Vice President Kamala Harris in the election betting markets after three weeks of being behind.
Of the six betting markets RealClearPolitics follows, Trump leads in five as well as the all-important overall average of all six: 50.3 to 48.3 percent.
Prior to the launch of the Democrat National Convention, Vice President CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar enjoyed a lead of over five points, 51.9 to 46.6 percent.
Think about that… During her hours-long, primetime commercial complete with billions of dollars in fawning propaganda produced by the corporate media, Harris has lost not only her lead, but sunk by an average of 7.3 points.
Is this normal?
No. The norm is a convention bump.
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C-SPANWe can’t use this year as an example. The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump and his heroic response to it just days before the convention skewed the betting results. But in the 2020 presidential election, during the Republican National Convention that was held between August 24-27, Trump went from 12 points down against Joe Biden in the betting odds to only two points down by the end of August.
That’s a convention bump. During the 2020 Democrat National Convention between August 17-20, Biden stayed way ahead of Trump in the betting odds. Slow Joe was 15.2 points up on the 17th and 14.2 points up on the 20th—which is a statistical blip.
Harris has not only lost her lead during her convention, she’s lost an average of 7.3 points.
How is this possible?
I would attribute it to a few things…
The first is that most Americans are not stupid. “Joy” will not solve inflation, end the Russian and Gaza wars, secure the border, or make up for the nearly one million jobs we lost on Wednesday due to a government revision.
“Joy” is not leadership.
CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar cannot run on her record. She certainly cannot run on what she believes in. This convention is void of substance, policy, ideas, a vision, or even an argument beyond OrangeBadMan.
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C-SPANAnd that’s the other thing… These ceaseless, rabid attacks on Trump at the convention, especially the shameless racial demagoguery from high-profile Democrats like Michelle Obama, Barry Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and the like, undermine the one thing people have found appealing about the Harris-AWalz ticket, and that is the empty but positive “vibe.”
Also hurting Kamala in the betting odds is Trump’s stubborn hold in the only polls that matter, and that’s the state polls. Currently, both in the swing states and the national polling, Trump is polling better than he ever did in 2016 (which he won) and in 2020 (where we’re told he only lost by about 45,000 votes in three states).
While there is no question Kamala is polling better than Biden against Trump, all the Democrat Party lies and all the corporate media’s simps have not put her over the top.
Trump is not only hanging in, he appears to have found a substantive argument against Harris, which is 1) Little Miss Day One has been in charge for 3.5 years and 2) she refuses to take a stand on policy. No one knows what she will do as president, and her past proposals are wildly unpopular.
So now Trump is the policy guy gutting it out on the campaign trail making his case while Cackly cackles as A-Walz tosses her a bag of Doritos.
That is quite a contrast, one the media cannot hide.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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