New polling out of Florida shows abortion may not have the down-ballot effect Democrats are hoping for in November.
A survey by University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) released on Tuesday found that while likely Florida voters appear to support Amendment 4, — a measure that would enshrine the right to abortion into the state constitution — they also support Republican candidates more than Democrats.
The survey found that 69 percent of likely Florida voters would vote in favor of Amendment 4, which bars the state from restricting abortion before viability (approximately 24 weeks) or “when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.” Twenty-three percent say they would vote against the measure, and eight percent did not know or refused to answer. Constitutional amendments in Florida must receive 60 percent support to become law.
Among those who say they would vote for the abortion amendment, 53 percent identify as Republican, and 51 percent say they voted for Trump in 2020, the survey found. The state notably has almost 900,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats.
“Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”
At the same time, the poll shows former President Donald Trump seven points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, the new presumptive Democrat presidential nominee. If the presidential election were held today, 49 percent of likely Florida voters say they would vote for Trump, compared to 42 percent who say they support Harris. The survey is reportedly the first in Florida to compare Trump to Harris.
Likely Florida voters were also asked who they would support in the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), with 47 percent supporting Scott and 43 percent supporting Mucarsel-Powell.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by 4 — just inside the margin of error of this poll,” Binder said. “Scott has a history of winning razor-thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”
The survey is at least the third poll to show Amendment 4 garnering enough support to pass. Two other recent polls showed the proposed amendment falling short.
If Florida voters pass the measure with at least 60 percent support in November, the abortion amendment would undo the state’s six-week limit and basically create a permanent right to abortion in the state that could only be undone with another ballot measure or an uphill legal battle.
The survey was conducted with 774 likely Florida voters between July 24-27. The margin of error is ±4.6 percentage points.
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