Survey: Trump Leads Harris in Key Swing States

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing states, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey revealed on Thursday.

The Presidential Voting Intention poll examined the presidential race between Trump and Harris following President Joe Biden formally dropping out of the race and endorsing her after weeks of Democrat panic following his poor debate performance against Trump.

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Each matchup in the survey includes third party candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Overall, it shows Trump leading the pack in seven out of nine swing states.

In Arizona, for instance, Trump leads Harris by three percentage points — 46 percent to Harris’s 43 percent support. Another four percent choose RFK Jr.

Florida, which has not been widely considered a swing state in the last few years as Republicans grow their voter registration advantage to nearly one million more than Democrats, sees Trump leading Harris by eight percentage points — 47 percent to Harris’s 39 percent.

In neighboring Georgia, Trump leads Harris by five points, garnering 47 percent support to Harris’s 42 percent support in the Peach State.

Trump sees a three-point advantage in Michigan, leading with 44 percent to Harris’s 41 percent support.

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In Nevada, Trump leads with 45 percent to Harris’s 43 percent — a two-point advantage for the former president.

Trump also leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina with a four-point advantage and three-point advantage, respectively.

Both Trump and Harris appear to be tied in Wisconsin with 44 percent support each. It should be noted that five percent of those voters said they “don’t know” who they would support.

And in Minnesota — a traditionally blue state that Trump hopes to flip this election cycle — Trump trails Harris by three points, garnering 41 percent to Harris’s 44 percent.

The survey also provided this tidbit:

In seven of the nine swing states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), more 2020 Biden voters are switching to Trump than 2020 Trump voters are switching to Harris. In Nevada (9%) and Wisconsin (5%), an equal number of 2020 Biden and 2020 Trump voters now intend to vote for the other party’s candidate in the 2024 election.

The survey was taken July 22-24, among 6,927 voters in these swing states.

This survey coincides with an Emerson poll, which similarly found Trump leading Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while tying in Wisconsin.