The latest polling out of Deep Red Montana shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy with a narrow three-point lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.
“In a recently completed survey of likely general election voters in Montana … we found that Montana continues to be a state that wants to vote Republican and for President Trump,” writes pollster Fabrizio Lee, “and where the Senate race is a statistical dead heat despite Jon Tester’s cash and incumbency advantages.”
“Asked if they would vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate for Senator, the GOP candidate is chosen by a double-digit margin, 52% – 40%, with 8% unsure,” add the pollster. “Donald Trump overperforms the generic ballot, beating Biden in the Presidential ballot by an even larger margin, 54% – 36%, with 10% undecided.”
On a full ballot that includes Libertarian candidate Sid Daoud, Sheehy leads 46 to 43 percent. In a head-to-head match-up, the race is tied at 48 percent.
This is an internal Republican poll of 500 likely voters taken between June 3-5.
A more recent poll, taken by Public Opinion Strategies in mid-June, showed the race tied at 46 percent.
A poll taken in March by J.L. Partners also showed the Republican challenger Sheehy with a three-point lead, 48 to 45 percent.
Another March poll of this closely-watched and consequential U.S. Senate race from Hill/Emerson showed the Democrat leading by two points, 44 to 42 percent.
In February, a KULR-8/SurveyUSA poll had the incumbent Tester leading by nine.
Overall, this looks like a race that is still anyone’s guess.
Montana matters because the outcome will help decide who runs the U.S. Senate with 51 seats next year. Currently, RealClearPolitics shows Republicans with 49 safe seats and Democrats with 43. Montana, along with Texas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada are still toss-ups.
With Democrat Joe Manchin finally retiring, Republicans will have no problem picking up West Virginia, but West Virginia is already included in that safe 49 number.
That means that the GOP’s best chances of gaining control of the U.S. Senate are in Texas, where incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is currently leading in all the polls, and Montana, a naturally Red State where the Democrat Tester (like Manchin did in West Virginia) has defied the odds by hanging on.
Should Trump win reelection in November, control of the U.S. Senate will be vital to his appointments, not only to his administration but on the judiciary.
If Trump wins the presidency in November, the Democrat Party will freak out like never before. What we saw in 2016 will be nothing compared to what’s coming, and do not be surprised if Senate Democrats refuse all of Trump’s appointments. The sick games, smug posturing, and obstruction will be off the charts.
Winning the U.S. Senate will be crucial to Trump being able to govern. Hopefully, Montana will come to its senses in the next four months.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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