Shock as South African Opposition Has Chance to Take Power

South Africa’s opposition parties have a chance to take power from the ruling African National Congress (ANC), as the final results appear to show the Democratic Alliance (DA) could have enough votes to form a governing coalition.

Though the results have yet to be certified, and the exact number of parliamentary seats awaits calculation by a complicated formula, the ANC has barely managed to secure 40% of the vote to the DA’s nearly 22% of the vote.

That still leaves the ANC as the largest party. But it may not be able to form a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the radical left-wing party whose policies align most closely with those of the current government.

The EFF only won about 9.5% of the vote, and fell to fourth place, behind the Zulu-dominated Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party of former president Jacob Zuma, which won just under 15% of the vote. The EFF has already begun the coalition negotiation process by making outrageous demands, such as asking for control of the finance ministry.

Such talk — from a party whose platform includes Zimbabwe-style land reform — will alarm the business community, which is already pushing for a coalition between the ANC and the DA. But such a coalition would be unstable, as the ANC and DA have been implacably opposed to one another and would struggle to govern the country effectively.

There is another option, given that the ANC and EFF together fall just under 50% of the vote (49.74%, to be precise). The DA could invite the MK to join a governing coalition, along with all of the other small parties winning seats.

The resulting opposition coalition would have a razor-thin majority in Parliament. But each party would likely enjoy significant power within the government, with ministerial positions on offer even for parties winning only one seat.

That is the formula the DA used in 2006, when it won the municipal election in Cape Town, marking the first time that the ANC had been ousted from office in any election since the era of multi-racial democracy began in 1994.

In that election, the ANC and another like-minded party, the Independent Democrats, together fell just shy of 50%. The DA mustered the other parties and shocked the ANC by winning a city council vote for then-Mayor Helen Zille.

In the years that followed, local voters flocked to the DA, pleased by its performance in the city and the province. The DA consolidated its majority — a majority affirmed by the provincial result in the 2024 election in the Western Cape.

Putting together an opposition coalition to oust the ANC from power at the national level will require diplomatic skill. But it could be a rare opportunity to save South Africa from the ANC — and from a possible ANC-EFF-MK coalition.

The key could be former president Zuma. Despised by many South Africans for his corrupt tenure in office, DA leader John Steeinhuisen could approach him with an offer to share power — and exact his revenge on his former party.

Much will depend on the next few weeks, as party leaders meet behind closed doors to hash out potential governing arrangements. There will be backstabbing and bribery, rhetorical and real. But beyond, a brighter future could await.

Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of the new biography, Rhoda: ‘Comrade Kadalie, You Are Out of Order’. He is also the author of the recent e-book, Neither Free nor Fair: The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.