Poll: Less than a Quarter Believe Donald Trump Will Be Convicted in Business Records Case

Less than a quarter of Americans believe former President Donald Trump will be convicted in the business records case in New York, a survey from the Economist/YouGov found.

The survey asked respondents if they believed Trump would be convicted in the case, which the jury was still deliberating as of the time of this writing on Thursday.

Across the board, less than a quarter, 23 percent, said they believed Trump would be convicted, while 36 percent said he would not be convicted. A plurality, 40 percent, remained unsure.

Opinions were largely divided on party lines, as most Republicans, 51 percent, did not believe Trump would be convicted. However, over one-third of Democrats, 34 percent, thought he would be convicted, although 29 percent of Democrats said he would not be.

A plurality of independents, 48 percent, were unsure what the outcome would be, but another 31 percent said the former president would not be convicted, followed by 20 percent of independents who said Trump would be convicted.

Notably, most Trump 2024 voters, 53 percent, did not believe he would be convicted. Only 24 percent of Biden 2024 voters said the same.

The survey also asked respondents to reveal how they think a conviction would affect the presidential election. Thirty percent said it would have “no effect,” 19 percent said it would have at least a somewhat positive effect, and 35 percent said it would have at least a somewhat negative effect. Another 15 percent remained unsure.

If Trump is acquitted, 29 percent believed it would have no effect on the election, while 43 percent thought it would have at least a somewhat positive effect. Eleven percent said it would have at least a somewhat negative effect, and 17 percent remained unsure.

The survey was taken from May 25 to 28, 2024, among 1,748 U.S. adult citizens.

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Jury deliberations are underway — the second day after failing to reach a verdict on the first day of deliberations which kicked off on Wednesday. Over the course of the deliberations thus far, jurors sent several notes to Judge Juan Merchan related to testimony they heard over the course of the trial.

Follow Breitbart News’s trial livewire here.