AARP Poll: Trump Leads in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, a recent AARP poll found.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Biden by four percentage points — 49 percent to Biden’s 45 percent support. In that scenario, four percent remain undecided, and two percent say, “other.”

However, Trump’s lead increases to five points over Biden, even when third party candidates are included. In that scenario, Trump leads Biden with 46 percent support to the 81-year-old’s 41 percent support.

Per the survey:

Among voters 50+, Trump leads by wider margins on both ballots, while voters 18-49 are closely divided. Within voters 50+, Trump has a sizable lead with 50- 64 year olds, but the race is very close among seniors.

…

Trump is ahead in large part due to more consolidated support from Republicans than Biden is getting from Democrats, while Trump also has a slight edge with Independents

Indeed, Trump leads Biden by ten points among independents in a head-to-head matchup, and he maintains a five-point lead against Biden among independents in a matchup including third party candidates.

The survey also showed Biden with a negative net job approval rating of -26. In comparison, Trump has a positive net job approval rating of +4.

“Trump’s recalled job approval is a net 30-points better than Biden’s. Additionally, voters 50+ approve of the job Trump did by 12-points,” the survey found.

The full survey was taken April 24-30, 2024, among 600 statewide voters. It has a +/- 4 percent margin of error.

Biden’s poor job approval ratings and trailing Trump in Pennsylvania coincide with a recent CBS News survey that found that roughly half of voters in swing states Wisconsin (48 percent), Michigan (50 percent), and Pennsylvania (50 percent) believe the economy got worse under Biden:

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