The Iowa caucuses kick off the 2024 GOP presidential nominating process for Republicans as former President Donald Trump looks to pull off the greatest comeback in modern political history by retaking the Oval Office while fending off challenges from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
The caucuses, which begin at 7 p.m. Central Time in the Hawkeye State, mark the beginning of a long process of caucuses and primaries nationwide. Results are expected to start streaming in around 8:30 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Central, and continue throughout the evening.
The big question of course is whether Trump can win as decisively as polls suggest he will, and if he does what margin he holds over whoever comes in second. But also, who comes in second between Haley and DeSantis matters–and what the margins for those second and third place candidates are matter too.
Two other candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are also running. Ramaswamy’s team has argued his support is stronger than the. polls suggest whereas Hutchinson’s numbers have been stalled around a percent or two so whether either is able to outperform expectations will be another story to watch.
Iowa’s well-below-freezing temperatures–wind chills are expected to reach several dozen degrees below zero in some parts of the state–could have a major impact on turnout. But ultimately this first contest, where 40 delegates will be awarded proportionately based on the percentages of the various candidates’ finishes, will possibly determine just how complicated or grueling the rest of the calendar is for Trump, the likely eventual nominee for the GOP. A decisive victory in Iowa, followed by a similar performance in eight days in New Hampshire a week from Tuesday, could set the stage for an early and easy finish for Trump as soon as then or in South Carolina later in February. Between New Hampshire and South Carolina, too, are the Nevada caucuses, where Trump is expected to clean up big based off public polling showing him absolutely dominating there.
But a closer-than-expected photo finish could give at least one of Trump’s two main remaining challengers, DeSantis or Haley, the gumption needed to drag this race into March to Super Tuesday or perhaps beyond there. A delayed formal conveyance of presumptive GOP nominee for president for Trump could lead to donor class backers of DeSantis and Haley extracting concessions out of Trump if and when he gets there, and could divide the party heading into a high-stakes general election where Trump is expected to face off against Democrat President Joe Biden for a rematch unlike any other in U.S. history.
As results stream in from the Iowa caucuses, follow along here on Breitbart News for live updates and analysis.
UPDATE 11:39 p.m. ET:
Haley says she aims to make the race a “two-person race” with Trump and she will be going to New Hampshire tonight.
UPDATE 11:38 p.m. ET:
Haley congratulates Trump on his win this evening.
UPDATE 11:36 p.m. ET:
Haley is speaking now, addressing supporters in West Des Moines. Her third place finish was uninspiring at best. She begins by thanking her family members.
UPDATE 11:30 p.m. ET:
Vivek Ramaswamy has dropped out of the race and formally endorsed Trump for president:
UPDATE 11:28 p.m. ET:
DeSantis is addressing supporters in West Des Moines now, and begins his speech by saying “they threw everything but the kitchen sink at us” and references millions in attack ads against him and even says “they even called the election before everyone got a chance to vote.”
“We’ve got our ticket punched out of Iowa,” DeSantis says, arguing he will continue his failing campaign for the nomination.
UPDATE 11:25 p.m. ET:
CNN and the AP are projecting that DeSantis will come in second place in Iowa, but that second place finish is very far behind Trump’s dominating first place performance.
UPDATE 11:20 p.m. ET:
Haley is expected to come out and speak publicly soon, and it remains unclear what she will say after a very underwhelming performance in the Iowa caucuses. She far underperformed polls in the final days that projected her coming in second, and now it seems like she will finish third.
UPDATE 11:18 p.m. ET:
Vivek Ramaswamy is reportedly set to drop out of the race tonight, and endorse Trump this evening as well:
UPDATE 11:10 p.m. ET:
DeSantis, at least for now, intends to soldier on despite the intense pressure on him to drop out:
It’s worth noting DeSantis himself is not quoted here, and that the statement is not attributable to a named staffer but just anonymously to a “senior Ron DeSantis campaign official.”
It remains unclear if DeSantis or Haley will speak publicly this evening.
UPDATE 11:05 p.m. ET:
Trump wraps his victory speech talking about how if and when he wins the White House he will seal the border and open up drilling for oil and natural gas to unleash U.S. energy.
UPDATE 11:04 p.m. ET:
With 93 percent reporting now, Trump is still significantly above majority support at 50.9 percent according to the New York Times. It appears as though Trump will finish with majority support, and it appears as though DeSantis will likely finish in second with Haley in third–a horrible outcome for anyone trying to stop Trump from being the GOP nominee.
UPDATE 11:00 p.m. ET
Trump says he wants to “thank the great people of Iowa.”
“It’s time for our country to come together,” Trump said, calling for unity across political affiliations to “straighten out the world.”
Trump begins a push to unify the GOP heading into the general election by congratulating DeSantis and Haley, but noting “we don’t even know the outcome of second place.”
“I also want to congratulate Vivek because he did a hell of a job,” Trump said.
He also thanked the various lawmakers and surrogates who backed him, and his family members including his wife Melania and sons Eric and Don who joined him onstage and daughters Ivanka and Tiffany and son Barron who were watching at home.
UPDATE 10:53 p.m. ET:
Trump has taken the stage at his victory event in Des Moines and is set to begin speaking shortly.
UPDATE 10:52 p.m. ET:
Side story: Ryan Binkley is beating former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson right now statewide. Pretty amazing how badly Hutchinson is performing.
UPDATE 10:49 p.m. ET:
DeSantis ally Ben Shapiro of the Daily Wire says the blowout victory for Trump tonight means Trump is going to be the GOP nominee for president:
UPDATE 10:37 p.m. ET:
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who endorsed Trump and barnstormed Iowa on his behalf in the weeks leading up the caucuses, is joining others calling on Haley and DeSantis to suspend their campaigns, drop out of the race, and unify behind Trump for president in 2024.
“Iowa spoke loud and clear. President Trump has won overwhelmingly tonight,” Noem said in a statement on Monday evening. “He got more votes than all the other candidates COMBINED.“It’s time to unite the Republican party. We need to put all our time, treasure, and talents into defeating Joe Biden and taking our country back – NOT figuring out who is in 2nd place.“Congratulations, Mr. President.”
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET:
A huge chunk of more votes just came in, with 77 percent reporting now in Iowa, and Trump is way above 50 percent at 51.4 percent. DeSantis is in second place at 21 percent, and Haley is in third place 18.9 percent.
UPDATE 10:22 p.m. ET:
Trump is expected to speak at his victory party in Des Moines very soon.
UPDATE 10:14 p.m. ET:
DeSantis’s headquarters was desolate when the AP called the race for Trump just after 8:30 p.m. ET:
There is a growing sense in Trump-world after this blowout victory that if Trump can replicate this in New Hampshire in eight days he might be able to wrap it up right there and then. That would have previously been unthinkable, as most expected the race to carry at least until South Carolina. Now, Trump could be set up thanks to Iowa to deliver the knockout punch in New Hampshire to both Haley and DeSantis in less than a fortnight.
UPDATE 10:05 p.m. ET:
DeSantis supporters are significantly deflated. One such DeSantis supporter is publicly ripping the DeSantis operation for boasting all year about 60,000 plus “commitment cards,” but being on track for far, far less votes than that. It appears as though this demonstrates the supposedly vaunted DeSantis organizational structure was not so organized after all the bluster from his team:
UPDATE 9:48 p.m. ET:
While Trump’s victory is not in doubt, the final margins are still changing as more of the votes are getting counted. According to CNN, with 34 percent reporting statewide, Trump is at 52 percent while DeSantis is in second at 20.3 percent and Haley is in third at 19.2 percent. This is a historic blowout. Assuming these margins hold, this means Trump will have won the biggest victory in a contested Iowa caucus in its history–and will have gotten the highest percentage ever in a contested Iowa caucus. Meanwhile, the bitter race for second between Haley and DeSantis bodes horribly for both of them as the two are going to gruel out a contest for also-ran from here on forward.
UPDATE 9:38 p.m. ET:
Pressure is now building on DeSantis to drop out of the race and end his failing bid for the GOP nomination. In Virginia, State Sen. John McGuire–the first elected Republican in the Old Dominion state to endorse Trump there–is calling on DeSantis to end his campaign. McGuire is running in the fifth congressional district GOP primary against DeSantis-backer Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), the new chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and someone caught on video recently trashing Trump baselessly.
In a statement released on Monday evening after Trump’s romp in the Iowa caucuses, McGuire called on DeSantis to drop out–and for Good to back off DeSantis and to get behind Trump.
“I was the first elected official in Virginia to endorse President Trump for 2024 and I congratulate him on a well-deserved victory in the Iowa caucus,” McGuire said. “The best thing for Iowa, Virginia, and this great country is for Donald Trump to be president again, and I’m doing everything I can to make that happen. My opponent, Bob Good, is working against and disparaging Donald Trump, which is very dangerous for the future of America. It’s time for Ron DeSantis (Never Trumper Bob Good’s favorite candidate) to drop out, along with the other Republicans still in the presidential race. Stop helping the Democrats — let’s get Trump back in the White House so he can Save America.”
UPDATE 9:17 p.m. ET:
Just weeks ago, Team DeSantis was publicly arguing that Trump was “worried” he would be “losing” the Iowa caucuses–and that the Trump team was “laying the groundwork to claim there is fraud” in such a case:
Wolking is the top communications adviser for the pro-DeSantis Super PAC Never Back Down–and clearly one of the only people who worked there over the past year who survived a mass exodus from the organization–so him saying this in early December is a pretty stunning revelation now that Trump won the Iowa caucuses in an absolute blowout landslide victory, and it’s the DeSantis campaign whining about “election interference” from media outlets who called the race so early because of how big a win it was for Trump.
UPDATE 9:12 p.m. ET:
Trump is reportedly waiting to give a victory speech until after more of the margins report in the official results, but he is reportedly at his victory party in Iowa.
UPDATE 9:09 p.m. ET:
The DeSantis campaign itself is now formally endorsing the nonsense that the early calls for Trump’s historic victory after his landslide win in the Iowa caucuses was “election interference.”
“It is absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote,” DeSantis campaign communications director Andrew Romeo said in a statement this evening. “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.”
Obviously, it is not election interference–but the desperation of the DeSantis operation, whose candidate spent months publicly predicting victory only to be crushed at the polls, is only going to intensify.
UPDATE 9:06 p.m. ET:
Trump is clearly very happy after the projections he has won the Iowa caucuses in a landslide blowout victory:
UPDATE 9:02 p.m. ET:
Trump-world is ecstatic right now in celebrating the former president’s historic victory.
“The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President,” Alex Pfeiffer, the communications director of the pro-Trump Super PAC MAGA Inc., said, for instance. “It’s now time to make him the next President of the United States.Joe Biden’s team just announced a massive war chest. Every dollar spent by President Trump’s primary losers is a dollar that could be fighting Joe Biden. Once the DC RINOs are finished crying in their cocktails over tonight’s results, it’s time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources.”
UPDATE 8:50 p.m. ET:
Team DeSantis top ally Bill Mitchell is whining about the networks and media calling the Iowa caucuses for Trump so quickly, claiming it is “election interference”:
UPDATE 8:43 p.m. ET:
Trump’s Super PAC is rubbing it in, quoting a top DeSantis surrogate saying before the caucuses that if Trump won them as he now has that Trump will be the GOP nominee for president this year:
UPDATE 8:38 p.m. ET:
The fact that all the networks and the AP called the race for Trump with less than 1 percent reporting is a terrible sign for anyone not named Trump still trying to run for the GOP nomination for president. Haley and DeSantis, who are battling it out for a clearly distant second place, are going to face real questions moving forward about whether they can continue their campaigns beyond tonight.
UPDATE 8:34 p.m. ET:
The Associated Press has also called the Iowa caucuses for Trump as well, yet another sign of his blowout win on Monday evening:
UPDATE 8:32 p.m. ET:
CNN projected at 8:30 p.m. ET that Donald Trump has won the Iowa caucuses, a sign of a blowout victory for the former president.
UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:
The first results are trickling in from around Iowa, per the New York Times, and Trump has an early lead of 151 votes to DeSantis’s 24 votes and Haley’s 13 votes. It’s early, but things are looking good for Trump.
UPDATE 8:22 p.m. ET:
Trump is speaking at a caucus site in Clive, Iowa, bashing the Chinese Communist Party in his address seeking Iowans’ votes–while also noting he gave billions to the farmers in Iowa during his presidency. Trump is also ripping Biden’s open borders, talking about terrorists streaming across the border.
UPDATE 8:13 p.m. ET:
CNN is reporting that turnout is down in the Des Moines area, which is potentially bad for DeSantis and Haley. “That’s bad news for the non-Trump candidates,” John King says, interpreting reports of low turnout in Iowa’s biggest city.
UPDATE 8:08 p.m. ET:
Trump, according to CNN entrance polling, is absolutely crushing it with evangelicals, getting 55 percent support. This bodes very well for the former president.
UPDATE 8:06 p.m. ET:
In an NBC News entrance poll broken down by Chuck Todd on NBC News Now, 81 percent of the caucus-goers were registered Republicans, 16 percent were independents, and three percent were Democrats. This bodes well for more hardline conservatives and poor for more moderate candidates.
UPDATE 8:00 p.m. ET:
The Iowa caucuses are officially underway now across the Hawkeye State.
CNN says in its entrance poll that Trump is the early leader of the candidates entering the caucuses, and DeSantis and Haley are in a fierce fight for second place.
UPDATE 7:57 p.m. ET:
CNN’s entrance poll shows that 54 percent of caucus-goers call themselves “very conservative,” significantly higher than the 40 percent eight years ago. The top issues are immigration and the economy.
UPDATE 7:56 p.m. ET:
CNN reports that turnout is extremely high in Council Bluffs–so high that the organizers of the caucus site there ran out of ballots and have had to hand out legal paper for people to vote on.
Voting begins in minutes statewide.
UPDATE 7:48 p.m. ET:
According to a CNN entrance poll, 53 percent said they would consider themselves a member of the MAGA movement. Sixty-three percent also said Trump is fit for the presidency even if convicted on one of the charges he faces in various places. A strong majority also said Democrat President Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
David Axelrod, a former Barack Obama adviser, said these early entrance poll results seem like a “good looking electorate for Donald Trump.”
UPDATE 7:42 p.m. ET:
If Haley ever did get the nomination, she would have serious issues consolidating the GOP:
UPDATE 7:38 p.m. ET:
People are streaming into caucus locations all over Iowa right now and checking in as they verify they are eligible to vote. CNN is currently interviewing people at different locations, and found one man who claims to be a Democrat who’s switching parties to vote for Nikki Haley.
UPDATE 7:22 p.m. ET:
Caucus sites are beginning to open across the state of Iowa and it does appear as though Trump supporters are showing up:
Trump’s team also has an all-star cast of surrogates on hand throughout the state:
In addition to those, as Breitbart News reported earlier, Montana U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is in Iowa as a formal Trump surrogate.