Survey: Donald Trump and Joe Biden in Statistical Tie in New Hampshire

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are in a statistical tie in New Hampshire, an Emerson College survey reveals.

Trump is within striking distance of Biden in the Granite State, as Biden leads with 40 percent support in a four-way race between himself, Trump, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party candidate Cornel West. Trump comes in second place with 37 percent support. That three-point difference is within the survey’s margin of error.

Another eight percent support Kennedy, followed by one percent who support West. In this four-way matchup, 14 percent remain undecided:

This particular survey shows that the inclusion of third-party candidates actually hurts Biden and helps Trump, as Biden boasts a five-point lead, 47 percent to Trump’s 42 percent in a two-man race. However, in that scenario, 12 percent remain undecided, which is more than enough to swing the race in either direction.

More via Emerson College:

Kennedy supporters equally come from both Trump and Biden, 6% of Biden and Trump voters switch to Kennedy when he is added to the ballot; 26% of those who are undecided on a Trump v. Biden match-up support Kennedy when he is added to the ballot.
“Kennedy voters are significantly less locked in than Biden and Trump voters,” Kimball explained: “Majorities of Biden and Trump voters, 66% and 68%, say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose, whereas 75% of Kennedy voters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.”

The survey also shows New Hampshire independents preferring Biden over Trump, 47 percent to 36 percent. However, age is a concern among voters, as most, 53 percent, believe that Biden’s age “makes the job too difficult.” Yet “a quarter of those who say age makes his job too difficult still plan to vote for Biden over Trump, while 61% of those who say Biden’s age makes his job too difficult plan to vote for Trump,” per the survey.

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Further, 53 percent overall disapprove of Biden’s job performance, while 37 percent approve. Notably, Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democrat Joyce Craig by three points in a hypothetical gubernatorial race as well.

The full survey was taken November 10-13, 2023, among 917 registered voters. It has a +/- 3.3 percent margin of error and comes as several other surveys show Trump trouncing Biden in several key swing states, including Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan.