Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are tying nationally when third party candidates are in the mix, as well as head-to-head, the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released this week found.
The survey found Trump and Biden tying with 37 percent support in a four-man race, followed by 13 percent who selected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another four percent who chose Green Party candidate Cornel West. RFK Jr. formally announced two weeks ago that he would leave the Democrat Party and run as an independent candidate, telling a crowd at Independence Mall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, that he hereby declared “independence from the cynical elites who betray our hope and who amplify our divisions.”
“And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties,” he said, garnering disappointment from members of his family, some of whom described his decision as “deeply saddening.”
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While Democrats have been wary of third party runs and how they could affect Biden, given Green Party candidate Jill Stein’s negative impact on Hillary Clinton in 2016, this survey shows Biden taking a one-point edge over Trump in a three-man race between himself, Trump, and RFK Jr., without West. In that scenario, Biden has 38 percent support, followed by Trump with 37 percent and RFK Jr. with 13 percent. However, the roles reverse when RFK Jr. is taken out of the race and replaced solely with West. In that scenario, Trump leads Biden by two points, with 41 percent support. Biden follows with 39 percent, followed by West in the single digits with seven percent support.
Biden and Trump tie at 41 percent in a two-man race.
The survey was taken October 17–20, 2023, among 1,000 registered voters. It has a +/- 3.1 percent margin of error and follows debate on the impact RFK Jr.’s independent presidential bid will have on the presidential election — namely, whether his independent presence will help or hurt the former president.
An Echelon Insights survey released earlier this month, however, showed the opposite, with Trump’s lead over Biden increasing when RFK Jr.’s independent bid is thrown into the mix.