Exclusive: Lt. Col. Davis: U.S. Lost Its Global Influence, Middle East ‘Powder Keg’ Can ‘Explode' into Regional Conflict

Current clashes in the Middle East are part of a larger picture of volatility in a wide range of countries amid the global loss of American prestige and influence, according to retired Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, who warned that the Israel-Hamas conflict may be the “spark” that “explodes” into a much larger regional conflict “at any time.”

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, Davis, a Defense Priorities senior fellow and military expert who retired from the U.S. Army as a Lt. Col. following his 21 years of active service, addressed the larger global context of the current conflict between Israel and Hamas, noting that “this is not 1991.” 

“When the Soviet Union collapsed, the U.S. was the unipower. China was still a third world country [with] a peasant army; nothing was modern. We had just crushed Saddam Hussein to demonstrate our military prowess. We literally could do anything we wanted in the world. Nobody could touch us economically or militarily, and we ‘won the Cold War,’” he stated. 

“We patted ourselves on the back for a couple of decades on that. In fact, part of this we do today,” he added.

However, Davis noted, the times have changed and the world is now in a very different place.

“We never mentally left the Cold War; we never mentally left 1991,” he stated. “So we’re still trying to act today — and Biden’s speech was pretty much just like that — [like] we can just tell nations what to do and then they’re gonna do it,” he said. 

“That is not the world we live in anymore,” he added. 

According to Davis, China is the “second largest economic power [in the world] and the biggest military power in its region, and we still want to try to say that we’re going to tell them what to do; and we want to tell Russia what they’re going to do.”

“We want to tell everybody what they’re going to do, and then we see that we can’t even win a little war like Afghanistan,” he said. “We struggled through that war, which ultimately ended in absolute disaster and humiliation.”

Highlighting the recent snubbing of President Biden and other American officials in the Middle East, the former lieutenant colonel also noted that America’s projection of weakness is being observed around the globe.

“People know all these things that are happening that I was arguing about from 2009–2012, and now when it had played out that way our credibility and reputation is just going through the toilet,” he said. “It was really on display these past weeks. [U.S. Secretary of State Anthony] Blinken went over there [and] Secretary [of Defense Lloyd] Austin went over there on a regional tour to all of our friends and allies in the Arab nations — and got nothing.”

“[Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-] Sisi basically gave Blinken a scolding, calling him out in public. Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia stood strong with the Palestinian side. Jordan canceled their meeting with Biden (along with Egypt and PA President Mahmoud Abbas) without any rescheduling. Biden was supposed to show up there [and] it was supposed to be the crown glory,” he said.

“Instead, nobody met with anybody; we got nothing,” he added. “Even to this day, the Rafah crossing [between Egypt and Gaza] is still not open. Egypt has not demonstrated any desire or any movement at all to let any Palestinians come into its country. So it’s a complete disaster,” he added. “Biden thinks this is an inflection point but it’s the wrong inflection point he’s looking at.”

Davis, who spent more than two decades in active service including combat deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded two Bronze Star medals, also expressed his concern that U.S. backing of Ukraine could spill over into a conflict with Russia, and also “our movement in the Indo-Pacific to Taiwan,” he added.

“All that’s doing is inflaming the situation with China,” he stated. “We’re talking about actually having a war with China if they go into Taiwan.”

He also highlighted “smaller skirmishes” that have surged, such as between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the unprecedented potential for further conflict to erupt.

“The whole Balkans is again a powder keg and that could blow at any time,” he said. “It’s on the knife’s edge what’s going in there by itself.”

In addition to the friction in the south flank of Europe, he pointed to chaos in other parts of the continent.

“Now there’s divisions all over NATO with Slovakia, Hungary, even France is starting to turn sideways. Germany is fighting its own internal battles. It’s just disaster all over the place and now, of course, the Middle East where people are sick and tired of us basically telling them what to do with being the dominant power, ignoring everything that we don’t like. Hamas may have been the first spark but I don’t think it’s going to be the last because what they did made no sense,” he said.

“They don’t have the power. All they can do is lose — at least that’s how it appears — because they don’t have anywhere near the power of Israel,” he added.

The real question, he noted, is whether Hamas would remain alone in its conflict with Israel, and if the situation will escalate into a broader regional crisis.

“Hezbollah, who doesn’t have any [official] state power — shouldn’t be able to go toe-to-toe with Israel, but what if they do, too? Then Israel will have a two-front war, and then if we engage and then if Iran responds to that, it can go completely bad.” 

“There’s a significant chance that this explodes into a regional conflict,” he added. “This has very little chance to end up good, and a lot of opportunity for it to go bad.”

Calling it a “very dark time,” Davis described the potential for Iran to “unleash” Hezbollah and other proxies, should Israel invade Gaza. 

“There will be no shortage of [Iranian proxies] already situated in Iraq and Syria and elsewhere that will attack, too,” he stated, noting that such moves could result in attacks on Americans and even a direct conflict between Tehran and Israel.

“Israel might believe following the U.S. killing of [Iranian military commander Qasem] Soleimani a few years back and the lack of a serious response by Iran that Israel can attack Iranian leaders without an overwhelming response by them, thinking it might be a similar case,” he said.

“But because we’re in this powder keg, something like that can suddenly blow up in your face, and that’s what I fear that is going to be,” he added. “[Israel] thinking it’s going to be another lob-a-few-missiles-at-Iran with no serious cost — but I don’t think it’s gonna happen without unprecedented escalation.”

Despite the current chaos, Davis suggested that with “good solid diplomacy” along with action to “take this chaotic, volatile situation and tamp it down and keep everything at bay,” with Israel choosing to “isolate” Gaza and “keep it cut off” and let it “play out over time” instead of a full-fledged ground invasion, there is a possibility of “avoiding the explosion.” 

“But nobody in the Biden administration would do that,” he concluded.

On Friday, Davis sat with retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor, a former adviser to the Pentagon chief, to break down what would be expected in light of a looming Israeli retaliatory assault on Gaza.

Earlier this year, Davis warned that the United States has “no plan” or strategy in Ukraine and that invoking NATO’s “mutual defense” clause could trigger a nuclear war.

The matter comes as Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant outlined Israel’s goals in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, saying the Jewish state aims to destroy the Palestinian terrorist group and, after establishing control, hand authority to a new “security regime” in charge.

The current conflict between Israel and the terrorist Hamas organization followed the latter executing the worst terrorist attack in Israel’s history on October 7.

The unprecedented attack saw some 2,500 terrorists burst into Israel by land, sea, and air and gun down participants at an outdoor music festival, while others went door-to-door hunting, torturing, shooting, and kidnapping Jewish men, women and children in local towns. 

The terrorists also burned homes with families inside while proceeding to murder soldiers and infants alike, all while showering thousands of rockets down on Israeli civilian centers.

The attack has so far resulted in over 1,400 deaths, the vast majority of them civilians, more than 5,300 injured, and at least 212 hostages of all ages taken captive into Gaza, including several Americans.