Hamas Attack on Israel Could Shake Up House Speaker Race

The Hamas terror group’s brutal attack on Israel could shake up the race for Speaker of the House as some Republicans press for the immediate installation of a leader to address the growing international crisis.

The absence of a Speaker has hamstrung the House’s ability to quickly deal with the crisis, although President Joe Biden has not yet made a formal request to Congress and the Senate remains in its scheduled recess until early next week. House and Senate leaders have been briefed by the administration.

The White House called a lid Monday morning before noon, meaning Biden is not expected to make any additional public comments before Tuesday.

Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is acting with limited authority based on rules adopted after 9/11. However, he has shown a willingness to go beyond a strict interpretation of his powers by expelling Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Steny Hoyer (R-MD) from their prime office real estate in the Capitol.

McHenry has given little public indication of how he interprets his limited powers, although it is not expected he will move any substantive pieces of legislation under his current authority.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) and ranking Democrat Gregory Meeks (D-NY) wrote a pro-Israel resolution over the weekend, Axios reported. McCaul said he expects the resolution to receive consideration once a new Speaker is elected.

However, most Members, including McCaul and Meeks, are certain to demand more from the House than the kind words in that resolution.

Republicans are also missing a political opportunity to split Democrats on an intensely divisive issue inside their conference, although few will say it out loud. Members of the Squad have used their high profiles and large social media followings to attack the close United States and Israel relationship and promote pro-Palestinian views that have spread among Democrats in recent years.

Meeks, in partnering with McCaul, is likely looking to neutralize criticisms of his pro-Palestinian ranks.

Despite the anxiousness of some Republicans to move quickly to respond to the international turmoil — and perhaps use the crisis to return Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to the speakership — the Republican conference is unlikely to seriously consider a placeholder option until it becomes abundantly clear one of the candidates can’t get to the necessary 217 votes on the House floor. Current contenders for Speaker are Reps. Steve Scalise (R-LA), the majority leader, and Jim Jordan (R-OH), Chairman of the House Judiciary and Weaponization Committees.

The most ambitious timeline for McHenry and Republicans to hold that floor vote is Thursday, although it is expected Republicans will need more time to decide internally on their candidate. Jordan has suggested that Republicans should ensure that 217 Republicans will back the candidate on the floor before advancing the nomination.

House Democrats are set to assemble Tuesday and will nominate their Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) as Speaker, although there is no path towards him receiving 217 votes.

If Republican deliberations continue through the weekend, members calling for a temporary speaker will get louder and more emboldened.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), one of Congress’s top supporters of Israel, is likely to move quickly once the Senate returns next week. He is likely to consider attaching funding for Ukraine to a package for Israel.

Republicans, particularly those skeptical of continued funding for Ukraine, would prefer to fill the Speaker’s role immediately to prevent Schumer from getting the jump on that.

One option if no candidate quickly secures 217 votes is to temporarily elevate McHenry for a set period, perhaps 30 or 60 days. A cadre of McCarthy supporters have suggested they will nominate McCarthy to return outright to the Speakership.

McCarthy has publicly stated his openness to reclaiming the gavel, although his candidacy would almost assuredly fail to receive 217 votes. And based on the Democrats voting unanimously to oust him last week, a “rally around the flag” moment appears incredibly unlikely.

Any short-term Speaker would immediately be thrust into the spending fight. The continuing resolution passed only days ago expires November 17. Republicans had intended to examine each of the remaining twelve appropriations bills — they’ve passed four — before that new deadline, although McCarthy’s ouster threw that timeline into question.

Republican Speaker candidates will need to clearly lay out a plan to process those bills this week to their colleagues as well as a vision for addressing the developing war in Israel to a conference that is increasingly skeptical of taxpayer-funded foreign aid.

For now, the war in Israel is one of a handful of difficult problems a new Speaker and House Republicans must juggle as they set a new direction. If days go by without the Speakership resolved, and the ferocity of the war continues to be broadcast directly to Americans on social media and television, Republicans may be forced to seriously examine unconventional options.